Litfin: Belmont pick four play for Saturday, Oct. 18
While there is a $300,000-guaranteed late pick four, I’m more interested in the all-stakes early pick four on races 2 through 5, the Sleepy Hollow, Maid of the Mist, Mohawk and Iroquois. It’s a pretty simple caveman play, based on the fact that the first two legs offer some price potential, and the last two look like they’re strictly two-horse affairs.
SLEEPY HOLLOW
I’m not sold on morning-line favorite Ostrolenka (#2), who recorded a gaudy 90 Beyer Speed Figure for a maiden win by better than 14 lengths the second time out. He got away with a very slow pace that day and likely will face more pressure from Breakin the Fever (#4), who also graduated by a lengthy margin last time and is one of five juveniles in the field coming off a wet-track race.
One of those is Market Conduct (#5), who caught a sealed, muddy track while finishing third as the favorite in the B.F. Bongard. He was a very professional-looking debut winner at Saratoga prior to that, rallying nicely inside horses, and he may get a favorable race flow in this spot.
I’m also using Bullheaded Boy (#3) and Good Luck Gus (#7).
MAID OF THE MIST
Temper Mint Patty (#9) looks like one of the shortest-priced favorites on the Empire Showcase program after a blowout win in a muddy renewal of the J.A. Gimma, for which she earned a Beyer of 89.
The next-best figure belongs to Quezon (#6), who also ran in the mud when a six-length debut winner with a Beyer of 81.
But the track is fast today, and Sweetpollypurebrd (#5) and Sandra (#7) both have some upside as they stretch out from decisive second-out maiden wins. I’m also giving an outside shot to Lady Bling (#2), who ran against the Breeders’ Cup-bound Lady Eli in a paceless Miss Grillo and switches to dirt with a suitable pedigree.
MOHAWK
King Kreesa (#3) and Lubash (#9) were the one-two finishers in this race a year ago, and they have taken turns beating each other in photo finishes recently. They’re tough to separate but very reliable and a measurable cut above the rest based on current form.
IROQUOIS
It sure seems as though this sprint boils down to La Verdad (#8) going to the lead and Willet (#4) trying to catch her.
At 50 cents per combination, it’s a $50 play: 2-3-4-5-7 with 2-5-6-7-9 with 3-9 with 4-8.