Leigh Court leads speedsters into TCA Stakes
LEXINGTON, Ky. – Coincidence or not, there has been a strong correlation in recent years between who wins the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes and who wins the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint four weeks later.
Four of the past five TCA winners over Polytrack went on to win the Filly and Mare Sprint, and it is difficult to say whether a synthetic surface played a role. Likewise, four of the past five winners of the Presque Isle Masters over Tapeta have won the Filly and Mare Sprint.
Whatever the case, a handful of would-be Breeders’ Cup contenders are among the eight fillies and mares who will clash Saturday over the new Keeneland dirt surface in the six-furlong TCA, a Win and You’re In event for the Nov. 1 Filly and Mare Sprint at Santa Anita.
Three speedy invaders from Eastern regions of the continent form a core of favorites in the 34th running of the TCA: Leigh Court, a winner in 6 of 10 starts, including an impressive Aug. 24 comeback at her home base in Toronto; R Free Roll, a Florida-based filly with gate-to-wire victories in her last three starts; and Stonetastic, a New Jersey filly who turned heads with an 8 1/2-length romp in the Grade 2 Prioress at Saratoga last out.
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: No. 3 R Free Roll. Trainer Kirk Ziadie is 36-17-13-2 with a $2.14 ROI over the past year in dirt sprints following a win. Click for more details. – Mike Hogan
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Conspicuous by her absence from the TCA lineup is Judy the Beauty, the 2013 Filly and Mare Sprint runner-up behind Groupie Doll. Her two latest works have come over the Keeneland turf, but owner-trainer Wesley Ward said he intends to train her into the Breeders’ Cup and might even try her against male rivals in the BC Sprint.
The TCA, named for the prestigious club now headquartered just to the west of the Keeneland front gates, was inaugurated at the 1981 spring meet before being moved to the fall in 1995. It goes as the sixth of 10 Saturday races and begins an all-graded stakes pick four (races 6-9) and the pick five (races 6-10). Post time is 4 p.m. Eastern.
Key contenders
Leigh Court (Last 3 Beyers: 94-92-91)
* Bred and owned by Eugene Melnyk, this 4-year-old filly has been a standout on a variety of surfaces for trainer Josie Carroll, including a first-out triumph on dirt at Fair Grounds early in her 3-year-old season. She and jockey Gary Boulanger will have to work out a decent trip from a tricky post since she probably will not be getting the early lead against swifter fillies.
R Free Roll (Last 3 Beyers: 102-101-90)
* Now back in the care of high-percentage trainer Kirk Ziadie, she adds Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith, after Paco Lopez opted to stick with Stonetastic for one of his top clients. She did not beat a lot in Florida in the spring, and her Honorable Miss score came in the slop; clearly would prefer this new surface to be favoring speed.
:: BREEDERS’ CUP 2014: See DRF’s top contenders
Stonetastic (Last 3 Beyers: 108-91-81)
* Spectacular run in the Prioress came against 3-year-olds and represented a breakthrough event for the gray filly making just her second start since very early in the year. New Jersey kingpin Kelly Breen, best known for upsetting the 2011 Belmont Stakes with Ruler On Ice, shows above-average percentages in categories that apply here.
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: No. 5 Stonetastic. Kelly Breen is 11-3-2-1 with a $3.60 ROI past 5 years in graded stakes dirt sprints. Click for more details. – Mike Hogan
Southern Honey (Last 3 Beyers: 85-74-99)
* Given all the opposing speed, this 3-year-old would do well to replicate her effort in the Winning Colors over the Churchill Downs dirt, on which she rated kindly from off the pace before earning her career-high Beyer.