Leading Change’s Travers upset no surprise to Cox
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SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. – This spring, even as Commandment and Further Ado were establishing their credentials for the Kentucky Derby with Grade 1 stakes victories, trainer Brad Cox had this nagging thought that his best 3-year-old colt was still in the barn.
Leading Change, a son of Gun Runner, hadn’t even made a start, but he had trained early in his 2-year-old year like he could be special.
“Yes, I’ve always felt this was the most talented horse of the group,” Cox said.
Cox was speaking to a group of reporters Sunday morning, about 12 hours after Leading Change was special enough, in just his third lifetime start, to win the Grade 1, $1.25 million Travers Stakes by a half-length over Preakness winner Napoleon Solo. It was another 1 3/4 lengths back to Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes winner Golden Tempo in third.
The victory was the third in as many starts for Leading Change, who, due to bone bruising, didn’t make his first start until June 7 at Churchill Downs, the day after Golden Tempo won the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga. At 2, Leading Change had made it as far as the entry box but had to be scratched out of an Oct. 23 maiden race at Keeneland with what was ultimately diagnosed as bone bruising.
Cox said he was emboldened to give Leading Change a shot in the Travers for two reasons. He thought the horse – a half-brother to Kentucky Oaks winner Shedaresthedevil – could get 1 1/4 miles and, secondly, he wasn’t scared of anyone in the Travers field.
“Overall, we’ve been a part of this group of 3-year-olds with Further Ado and Commandment,” Cox said. “This is no knock on the other 3-year-olds, but there’s just no one to be scared of in this group. Going into the race yesterday, somebody asked me who do you like?” I said I wouldn’t be shocked if any of these horses wins. There’s no dominant horse, and listen I’m someone that looks at numbers. Going into the race yesterday I thought my horse was the fastest horse based on what little he had done.”
Leading Change worked out a beautiful stalking trip under Manny Franco and was able to wear down Napoleon Solo about 50 yards from the wire. Leading Change, who ran 1 1/4 miles in 2:02.98, earned a 103 Beyer Speed Figure for the Travers win.
Leading Change, owned by Wathnan Racing, has a racing future. It’s just unclear what the immediate future holds for him out of the Travers. He won’t start in the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby on Sept. 19, which means he would have to face older horses next time he runs.
When asked about a potential start in the Breeders’ Cup, Cox said “Yeah, we’re looking at the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but it very well could be the 2027 Classic.”
Cox said one definite target for Leading Change in 2027 is the Dubai World Cup in March. Wathnan is the racing operation of Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, emir of Qatar, and the Dubai World Cup is an important race to him. Wathnan and Cox won the Dubai World Cup in 2025 with Hit Show, who defeated Forever Young.
Cox said Leading Change will ship to Churchill Downs this week. He also said that Commandment, the Grade 1 Florida Derby winner and runner-up in the Belmont Stakes and Jim Dandy – also owned by Wathnan Racing – will run next year but that he suffered a recent training setback and won’t run again this year.
Cox said Further Ado, winner of the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes in April and Grade 3 Matt Winn in July, would be pointed to the Pennsylvania Derby.
Plans for the rest of the Travers field are very much in flux.
Napoleon Solo, who set the pace in the Travers, seemed to have come out of the race well, according to trainer Chad Summers. Napoleon Solo was scheduled to ship to Belmont Park on Monday, and Summers will prepare him for a start in the Breeders’ Cup with a decision to come whether it’s the $7 million Classic or $1 million Dirt Mile. Summers did say that the $20 million Saudi Cup, a one-turn 1 1/8-mile race in February, is very much on the minds of he and owners Espoir USA.
Noting that Napoleon Solo has only run seven times in his career, Summers believes there’s room for improvement in the son of Liam’s Map, who at 2 won the Grade 1 Champagne in his second start.
“I think he’s still learning,” Summers said. “Even Johnny [Velazquez] said he got just a little lost there for half a second. I do think he would prefer to have a target. We loved how he ran in the Preakness, we haven’t had that opportunity.”
Summers said he and the owners would monitor the upcoming fall prep races and see who goes where before a decision is made on which Breeders’ Cup race Napoleon Solo would target.
Golden Tempo couldn’t overcome the slow pace or 12-week layoff and had to settle for third in the Travers. Unlike the Derby and Belmont when Golden Tempo rallied outside, Jose Ortiz tried to rally him inside in the stretch of the Travers. There was some room between Napoleon Solo and Sea Strike, but Golden Tempo couldn’t take advantage of that before it ultimately closed.
“It was more the pace and he couldn’t get a clear run,” trainer Cherie DeVaux said. “Every time Jose tried to get him out, he had another obstacle, so he just got stuck down inside. He hesitated a little bit, but when you have a horse that makes a run like that and a sustained run, it’s hard to regain momentum when you get stopped and he did that a couple of times, so I thought with all of those factors he ran a great race.”
DeVaux said Golden Tempo would return to Keeneland this week and he would be aimed at the $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic on Oct. 31 at Keeneland. DeVaux said she would discuss with the owners – the Phipps Stable and St. Elias Stable – whether to train up to it or find a prep race somewhere beforehand. Churchill Downs, on Sept. 26, holds both the Grade 2, $500,000 Lukas Classic at 1 1/8 miles for 3-year-olds and up as well as the $300,000 Bourbon Flight, restricted to 3-year-olds at 1 1/16 miles.
The connections of The Puma believe their horse was compromised by a slow pace in the Travers. Trainer Gustavo Delgado said the horse came out of the race in good order and he would keep him in Saratoga for the next few weeks before deciding where to run next. He didn’t rule out the Pennsylvania Derby. Though it’s back in three weeks, The Puma came within a nose of Commandment in the Florida Derby three weeks after he won the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby.
Trainer Chad Brown was disappointed in the fifth- and sixth-place finishes of Emerging Market and Sea Strike, respectively, in the Travers. Brown said both colts are expected to race again in 2027 and that Emerging Market may get “a reset” and await next year while he will consider keeping Sea Strike going this year. Brown said, in hindsight, Sea Strike “may have reacted” to his 8 1/2-length victory in the Curlin while running back four weeks later in the Travers.
Renegade, the Jim Dandy winner and Kentucky Derby runner-up, was the biggest disappointment in the Travers, finishing eighth, beaten 10 3/4 lengths. He was fractious in the starting gate, leapt in the air when the gates opened, and then got squeezed back between rivals.
“He got further back and was never able to recover from that,” trainer Todd Pletcher said. “We were hoping to make that same kind of run he made last time, and he never got totally in the clear and didn’t fire.”
Pletcher said there are no immediate plans for Renegade, though he indicated that the plan is for Renegade to race next year.
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