Leading Change rewards Cox's gamble with Indiana Derby triumph
:quality(75))
Trainer Brad Cox’s bold move running seven-furlong debut winner Leading Change in the Grade 3, $300,000 Indiana Derby paid off.
Those bold enough to support a second-time-starting July 3-year-old in a graded dirt route? They barely got paid. Absolutely hammered down to 1-2, Leading Change won by a neck and paid a minuscule $3. Leading Change figured to go favored, obviously had talent, but there were many unanswered questions before Saturday.
“It was definitely a bit of an unknown with going straight from a maiden race to a Grade 3 for a 3-year-old, running against seasoned horses. But he showed that he’s got a lot of class and talent,” said Cox, who trains Leading Change for Wathnan Racing.
Irad Ortiz rode Leading Change, who got a favorable trip in the sense that he sat second while racing in the clear, not a difficult ask for a horse with a mere one-turn maiden start behind him. But pacesetting Out of the Woods, making his ninth start, was clipping right along: The first quarter-mile went in 23.40, the half in 46.62; not outrageously quick, but a demanding tempo for an inexperienced horse like Leading Change.
You could see Ortiz sizing up the situation around the far turn. He had Out of the Woods in his sights, and it looked like he was confident that horse would not beat him, but Ortiz had to time his move to avoid getting run down in the final furlong. Leading Change stuck his nose in front at the five-sixteenths marker, and while Out of the Woods held his ground, jockey Luis Saez already was working hard while Ortiz still bided his time.
The outside challenge came from the most likely candidate, Our Moneyman, last of six in the early stages before beginning a steady march toward the front at the half-mile marker. Our Moneyman, second to the Cox-trained Grade 1 winner Further Ado last out in the Matt Winn Stakes, had momentum cornering for home, and drew within a half-length of Leading Change after straightening up, but his jockey, Axel Concepcion, also was working a lot harder than Ortiz – so hard, in fact, that he lost his crop after switching it from his right hand to his left approaching the sixteenth pole. Did it matter? Who knows, in the end, but Leading Change was holding his rival before the dropped crop, and he continued to do so while winning by a somewhat measured neck, then “winning” the gallop out.
Out of the Woods lost ground to the top two from the furlong pole home but still held third, two lengths behind Our Moneyman and 1 3/4 lengths ahead of fourth-place Zihnal, who outran his 20-1 odds. The race’s disappointment was Creole Chrome, who looked a certain pace player but never factored and was all but eased as the second choice.
Leading Change ran a solid raw time, 1:41.36, for 1 1/16 miles on a fast track. The good-looking colt is by Gun Runner out of the Congrats mare Starship Warpspeed, dam of Shedaresthedevil, a Cox-trained mare whose multiple Grade 1 wins included the Kentucky Oaks.
Leading Change figures to get a Grade 1 chance himself later this summer; Cox mentioned the Travers and the Pennsylvania Derby as possibilities.
Leading Change went off the heavy favorite in his debut, ran to his odds, and galloped out like a horse looking for more ground.
“After he broke his maiden, I didn’t know where I was going with him,” Cox said. “I had an allowance marked at Saratoga, one marked at Ellis. They were turn-and-a-half races going a mile against older horses. I thought, ‘I think he wants to go two turns. I don’t have to run against older horses running in the Indiana Derby.’ There were some positives here, and it worked out.”
A gamble worth taking for Cox and Wathnan, much less so for Leading Change’s many backers Saturday, who at least bet on a winner.
:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.