Late-runners appear to have edge in Whitmore Stakes
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This much is certain: Whitmore, at his peak, would easily have won the race that bears his name.
Beyond that, the Grade 3, $200,000 Whitmore Stakes Saturday at Oaklawn is about as clear as mud.
The six-furlong contest drew 10 entrants, and it feels like the winner could come from about from anywhere in the past performances.
Positionally, the winner seems likely to come from somewhere off the pace. There are just too many committed front-runners entered for the tempo to be anything less than fast.
Some combination of Edge to Edge, Empire of Gold, Pirate Rick, and Cogburn are going to be burning through the first half-mile, and it’s not easy to see any of them hanging around to the finish.
Cogburn has the best draw among the speeds, breaking to the outside of the other three pace players, and as a 4-year-old with one start since May and only six in his career, he also has more upside. Trained by Steve Asmussen, Cogburn was second in the Bachelor Stakes last year at Oaklawn, then second in the Chick Lang on the Preakness undercard at Pimlico, but didn’t see racing action again until Feb. 5. In his comeback, a non-winners-of-three allowance, he set the pace and held gamely to defeat Life Is Hard. If he can rate just a touch and work out a stalking trip, he can win the Whitmore.
Asmussen’s second runner is Morello. He is an enigma, with his career-best Beyer Speed Figure having come more than a year ago, when he won the Gotham Stakes. He was a competitive third Dec. 30 in the Gravesend at Aqueduct before breaking poorly and throwing a clunker Feb. 17 in an Oaklawn allowance. He does have the style to take advantage if the pace is fast, and some darkened form at a long price.
Trainer Chris Hartman’s best hope might not be his entrant with the highest recent speed figures, Edge to Edge. Franciso Arrieta has regularly ridden Edge to Edge, but winds up in the Whitmore on late-running Tejano Twist. Tejano Twist had the misfortune of running into Gunite on Jan. 28 in the King Cotton, and after making a big turn run from last, he was easily turned back. Hartman, hitting at 32 percent during this meet, has gone 0 for 22 in graded stakes races the last five years.
The third-place finisher in the King Cotton was Miles Ahead, who merits a second look in the Whitmore. He appeared to be struggling with a sloppy Oaklawn surface in the King Cotton, and after stalking from the inside, fell back to last while under a drive at the quarter pole. But Miles Ahead finally found traction through the final three-sixteenths and turned in a faster final furlong than Tejano Twist. He has several races over the last 14 months strong enough to win the Whitmore at a very square price.
Flash of Mischief, who was ninth last fall in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, might have run too fast for his own good capturing a Dec. 10 Oaklawn stakes race by almost eight lengths. Back on Jan. 28 in the King Cotton, he finished a flat fifth and it’s far from certain he’ll rebound Saturday.
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