Lake Ponchatrain gunning for repeat win in Dance to Bristol

Lake Ponchatrain began her life as a foal of 2012 in Oklahoma. Later that year, she was sold as a weanling at a Kentucky auction for a mere $1,000. Seven years later, and Lake Ponchatrain has become the queen of West Virginia.

She has started 23 times at Charles Town, amassing 12 wins, 4 seconds, and 4 thirds while earning $313,600 at this venue alone. She won the $100,000 Dance to Bristol Stakes by 1 1/2 lengths in 2018 and stands a strong chance of winning it again Saturday.

Lake Ponchatrain, owned and trained by Ernest Haynes, is listed as the 2-1 favorite for the seven-furlong, two-turn Dance to Bristol – and might actually constitute value at such a price. She always fires in seven-furlong Charles Town races (11-5-4-2 for her career), won the local prep for Saturday’s start by a comfortable margin, and is well drawn in post 6 under Arnaldo Bocachica, her regular Charles Town rider.

If there’s value on Lake Ponchatrain, it will come in great part from the presence of the Jorge Navarro-trained mare Tweeting. Tweeting has Beyer Speed Figures generally superior to those produced by Lake Ponchatrain, but lacks experience over a tight oval like Charles Town’s, where a home-field advantage can take a horse a long way.

More appealing than Tweeting, given the their relative odds, is the Tom Amoss-trained Inspeightof, who has done all her best work at Delta Downs, another track with a bullring oval, and ran below her best form when unable to race forwardly, as she prefers, in her most recent start. Amoss’s second starter, Sterling Miss, also rates a second look, at least for exotic wagers.

Isotope is cross-entered as a main-track-only starter at Laurel Park and would seem likely to stay in Maryland if she has the chance to run there.

Malpais goes in Hilton

Federal Case is the 9-5 morning-line favorite, but Malpais is the horse to catch and beat in the $100,000 Robert Hilton Memorial for 3-year-olds, another two-turn, seven-furlong race.

Federal Case won his career debut last fall at Keeneland over the capable colt Locally Owned while trained by Rodolphe Brisset, but has made his last three starts for trainer Todd Pletcher.

He won a first-level allowance race in December at Gulfstream and most recently was a well-beaten second in the six-furlong Hutcheson Stakes. That came one start after Federal Case was a flat seventh in the 1 1/16-mile Holy Bull, failing to finish off his two-turn debut with much energy.

“We’re still finding out what he wants to do,” Pletcher said. “Seven furlongs around two turns seemed like an appealing option.”

Malpais failed harder in his two-turn experiment this winter than did Federal Case, backing through the field to finish 11th in the Lecomte Stakes on Jan. 19 at Fair Grounds. But his sprint races have been much better, and his most recent start, an allowance romp March 23 in New Orleans, produced a 96 Beyer. Malpais is very fast and will be tough to run down if he takes a lead into the short Charles Town homestretch.

Cool Arrow in Russell Road

The Joe Sharp-trained Cool Arrow shipped to Charles Town a year ago and ran one of his best races of 2018, capturing the Robert Hilton Memorial by more than three lengths over a sloppy track. The Charles Town track could be wet again Saturday, and Cool Arrow, back for his second local start, is a key player in the $75,000 Russell Road Stakes.

The Russell Road, like the Hilton, is a two-turn, seven-furlong race, which is just about ideal for Cool Arrow, who can’t really keep up with stakes-level six-furlong horses but lacks the staying power of a true route horse. Back from a long layoff, Cool Arrow won a Feb. 14 two-turn Oaklawn Park allowance race in a fashion suggesting whatever caused his long absence hasn’t affected his performance level.

Sharp has a second starter, Concord Fast, who might struggle to stay the seven furlongs around two turns, and he once trained Line Judge, who runs Saturday for Amoss. Line Judge has four wins and two seconds from his last six starts, races that include Delta Downs stakes of quality comparable to the Russell Road.

◗ Races 5, 6, 7, and 12 are $50,000 stakes races restricted to West Virginia-breds.