Lady Fog Horn vulnerable in Richmond

There’s no question that Lady Fog Horn is the most accomplished horse in the Richmond Stakes, one of four $100,000 Indiana-bred and -sired stakes races Wednesday at Indiana Grand. She almost certainly is the “best horse” in the race as well, though the 3-year-old Carmalley Chrome, a year younger than Lady Fog Horn, also has showed talent this year.

But Lady Fog Horn also, at heart, is a grass horse. Yes, she previously has raced very effectively on dirt in Indiana-bred and -sired races, but even though she is coming off consecutive wins, Lady Fog Horn has not quite looked like the same horse this year as last, and there often comes a time when turf-horses-at-heart just decide they don’t want much to do with dirt racing. And if that time is Wednesday, Lady Fog Horn is a vulnerable odds-on favorite in the Richmond, race 7 of 10, post time 4:53 p.m. Eastern.

Carmalley Chrome would be the alternative had the Indiana Grand main track recently been favoring speed horses, as had been true much of this season, but the surface over the last several racing days has evened out. Carmalley Chrome exits two sprints for this 1 1/16-mile race for fillies and mares, and she can stay two turns under the right circumstances. With an outside draw and other pace in the race, these might not be those circumstances.

Express Run holds some appeal at something close to her 6-1 morning-line odds. Lady Fog Horn thumped her when they met Sept. 7, but that was a grass race, and Express Run is much better on dirt. She finished a distant fourth to Carmalley Chrome at two turns on the main track Aug. 3, but Carmalley Chrome got an easy lead that day, and Express Run has performed better in two other recent dirt-route starts.

The other longer price to consider is She Mabee Wild (12-1), but she probably is running at beyond her ideal distance.

The open counterpart to the female-restricted Richmond, the Gus Grissom, has Derby Express as a 9-5 morning-line favorite, and he seems easy to stand against at a short price. Derby Express dominated Indiana-bred 2-year-olds last season, but this year he has only showed top form in his two turf races, looking like a shadow of his former self on dirt. His most recent start, a solid second, came on grass, and bettors will overrate him Wednesday.

I Like Beer is the pick here, and though on the surface he looks suspect at two turns, there is reason to believe he can stay the trip and improve off a useful fourth sprinting in the Brickyard Stakes. I Like Beer finished third at this 1 1/16-mile distance in the $150,000 To Much Coffee Stakes about one year ago and has a win at the trip. He is by the decent sire Pass Rush and out of a mare by Cryptoclearance, pedigree to confer sufficient stamina.

Still Chief, Success Is Racing, and Country Minister also look like horses to be used in multirace wagers.

Ron odds-on in Crown Ambassador

The stakes action starts in race 5, the Crown Ambassador for 2-year-olds, and Ron will be an odds-on favorite to win. Win he will if he runs right back to a second last out in the Hillsdale Stakes, which was less restricted than this race, but Ron has improved in three races in a row now and might not be quite as sharp Wednesday as in his last two starts.

One horse to consider at a price is Calandave, who showed some signs of life in finishing second of 11 last out in his career debut.

The favorite in the Indiana Stallion for 2-year-old fillies, Defining Hope, might be a considerably longer price than Ron, but she appears to be on firmer footing with more room to improve Wednesday, even after a last-start stakes win. She has more tactical versatility than the front-running Ron.