La Verdad a target in Bed o’ Roses

Last Saturday night’s Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs was a coming-out party for Noble Bird for Mark Casse and a continuation of the great form shown by Lea under Bill Mott. Noble Bird got first run and held off Lea’s late charge to get a career-best 107 Beyer Speed Figure, his fourth consecutive race with a serious figure improvement. Noble Bird got an 88 when winning by a nose at Oaklawn in March, a 93 when winning by a nose again in April at Keeneland, and then a 103 when second by a head in May at Churchill Downs.

The Bed o’ Roses at Belmont Park looks like it might come down to the same pair who ran one-two in the Vagrancy. That race was at 6 1/2 furlongs, this one at seven furlongs. La Verdad obviously is going to be in front. Will the extra 110 yards allow the very hot Room for Me to catch up this time?

La Verdad loves the track, with five wins and a second in six starts. She also comes off a career-best Beyer in the Vagrancy but has not won in two tries at the distance. Room for Me’s last four Beyers are 105, 94, 100, and 97. She earned the last two off eight-day “rests.”

A wild card could be Dame Dorothy, coming off an upset win over Judy the Beauty and a career-best 93 Beyer in the Humana Distaff on Derby Day at Churchill Downs, her sixth win in just eight starts. The numbers are not there, but this is clearly a filly on the come, and she is perfect at the distance. A super-hot pace would not hurt at all.

The Summertime Oaks at Santa Anita might be decided early. If Fantastic Style, with a lifetime-best 97 Beyer in her last, clears the field, she could be gone. She is certainly the fastest horse in the race, but if fillies like Tara’s Tango and Conquest Girl are sent hard, a pace duel could change everything.

Give Stellar Wind a pace to run at, and she really should win. In fact, she could win even if Fantastic Style clears the field. She is obviously proven at the distance. Put a line through her Kentucky Oaks. She simply got too far behind. If her form holds up from the winter meet at Santa Anita, where she got a 91 and then a 95 in a pair of two-turn graded stakes, she could easily blow by them all.

The Donald LeVine Memorial at Parx does not appear to have a lot of early pace. A. P. Indian wired a sprint-stakes field at Monmouth and got a career-best 105 after he got a 102 going longer at Keeneland. His speed, outside post, and recent figures certainly give him a nice edge.

Note that Res Judicata’s lifetime-best figure of 102 came at Parx last June in his first race back from a November layoff. This is his first race back from a September layoff, and the horse figures to be right on or near the pace, a tactical advantage in a race with a lot of closers.

Stallwalkin’ Dude has compiled three consecutive triple-digit Beyers, 103, 100, and 100. He will have to work out a trip from the rail but obviously is a contender.

Coup de Grace has been a longtime tease, with just one really top Beyer in his career, the 102 he got last July when he won the Amsterdam at Saratoga. He was favored in both 2015 starts and did not fire in either, with figures of 87 and 79. The blinkers come back off, but the setup really does not look conducive for a deep closer.

Natalie Victoria is absolutely fascinating in Delaware Park’s Obeah, the local prep for next month’s Delaware Handicap. This race has almost no early speed. She came off a long layoff in the May 24 Monmouth Beach Handicap and ran another speed horse back into last before tiring late herself. If she clears this field, and she really should, she could run right back to her win in the 2014 Monmouth Beach Handicap, where she cleared that field of 10 and kept on going, getting a career-best 100 Beyer, a number that would win this race easily.

Sea Shadow got blinkers in the Winter Melody Stakes and promptly blew away the field while getting a 91 Beyer, nine points better than her previous best.