King's preview: Villandry offers value

Saturday, May 31, preview

Delaunay, Villandry the stakes choices

Two stakes, the Aristides and Opening Verse, are on deck for Saturday’s 10-race card at Churchill, which is calling its main track “fast” and turf “firm” after Friday rain. The rain probably aided the turf course, which was looking dry when racing was last conducted on it on Memorial Day.

The first of the two stakes, the Grade 3 Aristides, boils down to whether Delaunay will run to his potential. One of the top sprinters in this region last year, he has been off his game in his last two races, finishing second at 3/5 odds to Heitei in the Duncan F. Kenner in March at Fair Grounds and then fading to fifth in the Churchill Downs Stakes on Derby Day – a race he won in 2013.

The opinion here is that he will return to his winning ways. He returns to his best distance of six furlongs, and he delivered some top performances at Churchill, where he is 4 for 5 on the main track.

If he doesn’t fire, Mico Margarita is the one most likely to capitalize. Coming off a track-record-setting performance in a stakes at Evangeline, he also sports a win over the Churchill strip.

His trainer, Steve Asmussen, also has been successful over the years with bringing horses into Churchill off “small-track” performances and having them run well locally.

One race later in the Opening Verse, which goes as the last, Asmussen has the favorite in Regally Ready, who wired a money allowance field on turf at Churchill on May 1.

Having enjoyed a perfect trip in that race, getting away with setting a soft pace for a half-mile, he’s a play-against as the favorite.

The value-based choice is Villandry, who won a third-level allowance with a wide trip May 9. Although not as accomplished as Regally Ready, he is a horse who was fourth in the Grade 3 River City on this course, and having drawn the inside, he probably will get a chance to save more ground than he did last out.

SPOT PLAYS

Race 4

LOLA GETZ (#4, 7-2) showed improvement first off the claim for trainer Jeff Barkley, running competitively for a half-mile before fading to fifth. She is now cut back to six furlongs and should be fitter in her second start after 2 1/2 months off.

Race 7

SHE’S GOT SWAG (#6, 5-2) was likely claimed for her broodmare potential when taken for $16,000 in January, but she has turned into a good racehorse, winning two straight, including a first-level allowance rather comfortably May 9.

Race 8

TAKE THE ODDS (#1, 4-1) is a clear overlay at her 4-1 morning-line price, having twice run well in as many races, running third after a slow start last fall and then finishing second here in a well-rated maiden special weight on Oaks Day. I suspect she will drop lower than her morning line but seems worth backing at 5-2 or higher.

Early Scratches

Race 6: # 8 Gladhander

Race 8: #9 Morning Star

Race 10: #8 Cup of Joy, #10 Strike One