King's preview: Two spot plays for Thursday

Thursday, June 26, preview

Somewhat of a tricky read in the first

Deep Dive, the 2-1 morning-line favorite for the first race, a $5,000 claiming event, presents kind of a tough evaluation for horseplayers. Although he stands out on form and speed figures, he comes to Churchill Downs after having raced at Louisiana Downs.

Very few Louisiana Downs horses make their way up to Churchill Downs, much less claiming horses. So, there is not much precedent for how such types will fare.

The opinion in this corner is that the low-end claimers at Churchill have been among the weakest categories of races at the current meet. Horses from Belterra, Indiana Downs, and other lower-level tracks have come here to perform well.

So, if Deep Dive proves capable of handling the Churchill main track as well as he handled the Louisiana dirt, he ought to prove a winner. But proceed with caution if he dips below his 2-1 morning line. Obviously, there is uncertainty with a horse shipping in and changing tracks.

Of the horses with local experience, Z Camelot looks best, having just run a distant second following a short layoff in a swiftly run contest. He is also a three-time winner on the year.

Take The Odds looks to win two in a row in race 5

Take The Odds, a professional maiden winner May 31, takes on winners for the first time in the fifth race, a first-level allowance, and seems to these eyes a likely repeater. She owns the top last-race Beyer Speed Figure, an 81, and catches what appears to be a relatively soft allowance field.

Those who take a contrarian opinion on Take The Odds, viewing her as a bet-against candidate, have a basis for that stance in DRF Formulator statistics. Over the last five years, her trainer, Ian Wilkes, is 1 for 17 with maiden winners racing in allowances or optional claimers for the first time ($0.61 return on investment).

That could be skewed by a small sample, given that eight runners hit the board, or 47 percent. Many ran well and simply didn’t win.

Another negative trainer stat is Bill Mott adding blinkers for the first time – which is the case with his entrant, Assured. Excluding first-timers who debuted with blinkers, his horses have won at just an 8 percent rate over the last five years when adding the shades for the first time ($0.62 ROI).

Food for thought for those playing the race….

SPOT PLAYS

Race 3
GINNY’S GREY (#5, 9-5), the second choice in a short field, looks to improve with a surface switch form turf to dirt and a class drop. She ran her highest Beyers on dirt over the winter at Fair Grounds and also won at Churchill last fall.

Race 8
PRETTY FANCY (#9, 3-1) ran an 82 Beyer in finishing a close second to Handmade in a first-level allowance May 24 in her first start on dirt. The third-place finisher, Defoe Street, then validated the form with a subsequent win as the favorite in a starter $30,000 contest.

Early Scratches

RACE 1
#2 Artillery

RACE 6
AE #11 Adulare (MTO)

RACE 8
#3 Storm Rush
#10 Run Hide My Girl

RACE 9
#4 Drivin Miss Ellie