King's preview: Three spot plays for short fields
Short fields unfortunate norm for main track
If finding a live longshot at Churchill Downs in a dirt race today seems difficult, it should come as no surprise. Fields are short for all the main-track races, with all six of them being carded with seven or fewer horses.
Only 38 horses were entered in the six dirt races, an average of 6.33 entrants per race, and following an early scratch, that number is 37 and could continue to drop more when late scratches come in around midday.
At least the competition is deeper in the three turf races, with two of them drawing overflow allowance fields.
First race a battle of two starter runners
The shortest field of the day goes to post in the opener with only five horses, and at least on paper, the race looks like a two-horse race between Highroller Dave, a winner of three straight, and Bamboneo, who comes off four in a row.
The former has more speed, while the latter is seemingly the quicker of the two, based on their Beyer Speed Figures.
With a surprising amount of pace in a race that drew such a short field, the edge lies with Highroller Dave.
The trainer of Highroller Dave, Tom Amoss, has a good shot to win the daily double – having class-dropping Nick’s Pick as the morning line favorite for the second race.
Spot plays
Race 4
SHY ROSA (#2, 2-1) won for fun at Keeneland in a maiden $40,000 race on the Poly and proved she could handle dirt just as well with a second with a 77 Beyer in a starter $50,000 race. That last-race figure gives her a 10-point Beyer edge over her opponents’ best figures; a good single for early gimmicks.
Race 6
RUMBA (#3, 3-1) comes off her best race in four starts, a third-place finish following a four-month layoff May 25. She finished behind Senior Prom, a next-out allowance winner, and seems likely to benefit from that race; tactical speed and leading rider Corey Lanerie back up.
Race 7
ADVENTURE AT SEA (#8, 2-1) is returned to her proper level within the maiden ranks after being ambitiously placed in the Keertana Stakes when her connections took a shot with the hope that she could pick up a stakes placing and increase her residual value as a broodmare. She should rebound with easier company, having run second two starts ago against straight maidens, and now is in with maiden $50,000 company.
Early scratches
Race 5
#8 Ghost to Ghost; also eligibles – #13 Joedini (MTO), AE #14 Gran Chat
Race 6
#7 Purse Strings
Race 9
#3 Wicked Draw; #4 Delilahjane; also eligibles – #13 Flashy Gal, #14 Kimallosa, #15 Cherokee Beads, #16 Tap Twenty One