King's preview: Three spot plays and a live longshot for Saturday's card

Live longshot in Firecracker

The Firecracker, won last year by Wise Dan, offers a much more competitive group for this year’s running in large part because Wise Dan, the reigning two-time Horse of the Year, isn’t in it.

That is not to say it lacks quality. Free World has won five in a row, Silver Max was one of the top turf milers of last year and is making his seasonal debut, and Regally Ready is a Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint winner who has reinvented himself as a grass miler over the past year.

None of that trio is this handicapper’s choice – rather it is 10-1 shot Guy’s Reward. He seems to be cycling back into form after rallying for fourth June 8 in the 14-horse Monmouth Stakes and should benefit from a return to Churchill Downs, where he is 5 for 12 on the local course.

And due to the presence of want-the-lead types in Free World and Silver Max, not to mention Regally Ready, the pace should be hot to aid his rally.

Bashford Manor thoughts

The other graded stakes on the Saturday card, the Bashford Manor, isn’t the great wagering race that the Firecracker is due to its short field and the limited past performances of the six 2-year-olds in the lineup.

Given that five of the six are coming off maiden wins and none have raced farther than five furlongs in the six-furlong Bashford Manor, there is a lot of guesswork involved in handicapping this race.

The impression is that Cinco Charlie is the most likely winner. He impressed in breaking his maiden at first asking on this track with an 82 Beyer Speed Figure May 9. And with plenty of time since that race, trainer Steve Asmussen has been able to give him six works to prepare him for stretch out.

Governmentshutdown and Skyway seem his primary foes. The former is a stakes winner at Pimlico and the most seasoned entrant, while Skyway looks a lot like Cinco Charlie in that he won his lone start and comes into the Bashford Manor off a long and steady work pattern.

The difference between Skyway and Cinco Charlie is that Skyway won his lone start on Polytrack at Keeneland – making Skyway’s dirt-racing ability guesswork for bettors.

Afternoon rain forecasted

A heads up to horseplayers: Rain is in the Saturday forecast with the National Weather Service calling for a 60 percent chance of showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Spot plays

Race 2
ALERT AND PERKY (#3, 7-2) has a win and a second in two starts at Churchill, both with leading rider Corey Lanerie up. His last two Beyers (75 and 71) exceed any of his opponents' numbers over their last two starts.

Race 5
WOODFIELD SPRINGS (#8, 7-2) should step up his game with the shift from dirt back to turf, the surface on which he broke his maiden at Gulfstream over the winter. He showed class earlier this spring to finish third behind Medal Count in the off-the-turf Transylvania, a race that was run April 4 on Polytrack.

Race 10
ENGAGINGLEE (#8, 7-2) has twice hit the board in as many turf starts and gets in light with hot-riding apprentice Juan Saez, who has been moving horses up. This one has been away for almost two months but trained regularly and swiftly.

Early scratches

Race 7
#4 Positively