King's preview: Longshot possibility in Dowager

Nothing in the individual past performances hint of weakness in favorites CAROLINE THOMAS (#13, 9-2) and WHITE ROSE (#14, 5-1) in Sunday’s Dowager Stakes at Keeneland. But having drawn posts 13 and 14, respectively, with a short run to the first of three turns in the 1 1/2-mile race, wide trips for both could leave them vulnerable.

So let’s swing for the fences with a longshot in the Dowager: FRIVOLOUS (#5, 30-1), who possesses tactical speed and is drawn well in post five. Although just 1 for 6 on turf, she ran well on this course last year with a fast-closing fourth in the Valley View, and she has sharp dirt form since and is bred to stay 1 1/2 miles, being by Empire Maker.

Her 30-1 price on the line is probably too generous, with 20-1 probably more in line with actual starting price.

As for Caroline Thomas and White Rose, they certainly have strengths, aside from their post positions. The former is classy and owns lofty Beyer Speed Figures, and the latter has won two of her last three starts, most recently capturing the Kentucky Downs Ladies Marathon on Sept. 24.
Spot plays among the other races on Sunday’s nine-race card

Race 3: LONELILY (#3, 7-2) has twice finished third in straight maidens after an eighth first time out and is among the fastest in the field from a Beyer standpoint.

Race 6: SHIFT COLORS (#10, 8-1) can be forgiven for going unplaced in her latest at Saratoga after a troubled start in a slow-paced race. Her prior two turf starts were strong, and this one has trained well locally leading up to this. Her 8-1 morning-line price is appealing.

Early changes

2nd race
No Superfecta Wager
#4 – Core Destination – SCRATCH

3rd race
#5 – Kitty’s Giant – Jockey change to Rosie Napravink
#13 – Violet Road – SCRATCH

5th race
#4 – Mesoma – SCRATCH

6th race
#13 – Oaks (BRZ) – SCRATCH
#14 – Our Rockin Ruby – SCRATCH

8th race
#15 – Gathering – SCRATCH
#16 – Maid On a Mission – SCRATCH

9th race
#2 – Shopaholic – SCRATCH