King's preview: Good plays to find on short cards
Short fields Sunday
The Churchill Downs racing office had to hustle fill nine races for Sunday, and in the end, just 62 horses were entered. Now, with four early scratches announced at this writing at 9:30 a.m. Sunday, the number of horses running is down to 58.
That is an average of 6.44 runners per race, with the first five races being particularly short. Not until the sixth race will fans see something larger than a six-horse field.
Finding value in such races is difficult, though this horseplayer likes a couple moderately priced horses in the first two races in 9-2 shot Dixie Fiction in race 1 and 4-1 Overton Square in race 2.
Dixie Fiction is dropped to her lowest maiden claiming level, and though she has shaky recent form, she had excuses for some of those losses. Now she picks up leading jockey Corey Lanerie and finds a struggling field.
Overton Square is also moving down the class ladder, going from maiden $50,000 company to maiden $30,000 and should improve with the cutback to a sprint. Last out when routing in a slow-paced race, he grew rank when rated and faded thereafter. He possesses back class, having run third in a straight maiden race last September at Churchill.
Spot plays
Third race
SCENARIO ANALYSIS (#1, 5-2) failed to threaten last out in the slop but strictly appears to be a turf/Poly runner. He is back to his best surface on the grass and has a stalking style in a field with a good amount of speed.
Sixth race
PAROLED (#8, 5-2), scratched from a similar race May 22 when it came off the turf, looks like the class of this $30,000 claimer. He just missed winning a tough claimer at Keeneland when second last out on the Poly and seemingly handles turf as well as the synthetic.
Eighth race
SAA MI (#2, 7-2) impressed in winning a maiden special weight on dirt here May 3 and returns at the same 1 1/16-mile distance. He ran a fine 86 Beyer Speed Figure last out, one of the best recent numbers in the field.
Early Scratches
Race 2
#2 Surf Classic
Race 3
#4 Regal Joanne
Race 8
#4 Escape Artist
Race 9
#5 Sylvan Light