King's preview: Five solid stakes

Top to bottom, the best stakes card of the Keeneland fall meet takes place Saturday, with five stakes on the docket, many with Breeders’ Cup ramifications. So let’s get straight to the handicapping and an analysis of the five stakes:

Woodford Stakes, race 5

Sharp Sensation (#6, 6-1) beat Ben's Cat at Parx in the Grade 3 Turf Monster, one of the best grass sprint races of the year. I was encouraged how he rated just off the pace and finished well to score. If he can replicate that style it would work to his advantage in this speedy field going 5 ½ furlongs on turf.

Marchman (#10, 7-2) is among the fastest and most consistent turf sprinters around, but concerned about the possibility of ground loss, landing post 10 with plenty of other speed horses inside him.

The same is true of the streaking Spring to the Sky (#11, 7-2), a winner of three straight after clearing on the lead. He has his work cut out to gain his preferred running position on the front end from post 11.

Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes, race 6

Stonetastic (#5, 2-1) is perfect in two starts this year, easily winning an allowance at Monmouth and then the Prioress by 8 1/2 at Saratoga. Inside posts in those races forced jockey Paco Lopez to use her more early but he can ride her with more patience with this draw, being outside of most of the other speed.

Southern Honey (#6, 5-1) might be cycling back to her best after finishing a distant third in the Prioress. She makes her third start of her current form cycle and is already a graded winner vs. older mares at six furlongs, having won the Grade 3 Winning Colors at Churchill.

R Free Roll (#3, 5-2) has won three in a row by going all out from the start and daring the field to catch. She has posted lofty figures in her last two, but one came at her home base of Calder, now known as Gulfstream Park West, and the other in the slop at Saratoga, a surface horses seem to love or hate when wet. Suffice to say, she loved it.

First Lady Stakes, race 7

Somali Lemonade (#8, 9-2) has raced with the best mares in the country this year, and even beat Stephanie's Kitten, the top older mare being pointed for the Breeders' Cup Filly and mare Turf, in the Grade 1 Diana at Saratoga this summer. Her tactical speed and an affinity for Keeneland are other advantages.

Dayatthespa (#7, 3-1) and Discreet Marq (#6, 6-1) are two of the top female turf milers in the country, Grade 1 winner; they have nearly identical bankrolls of almost $1 million. Dayatthespa finished in front of Discreet Marq in their most-recent match-up in August at Saratoga.

Breeders’ Futurity, race 8

Bold Conquest (#6, 9-2) was unfortunate to not win the Grade 3 Iroquois last month at Churchill. Normally an alert gate horse, he broke a step or two slowly, and then got hung wide throughout in a race that had no pace. Despite all this, he still came close to victorious Lucky Player, who enjoyed a perfect trip up front.

Hashtag Bourbon (#10, 4-1) also broke poorly in the Iroquois and then grew rank when bottled up behind horses on the inside. He didn't get out until the eighth pole and then was even paced late to finish third.

Carpe Diem (#5, 4-1) sold for $1.6 million at OBS this past March and is a grand-looking horse, but he beat little by Saratoga standards in his maiden heat there going just 5 1/2 furlongs. It is worth noting that the third-place finisher couldn't even win back at Indiana Downs at 1-10 odds.

Shadwell Turf Mile, race 9

Grand Arch (#3, 12-1) is the value of the Shadwell Turf Mile, coming into this race with good form but likely to slip through the wagering cracks. He was beaten just three lengths in the Woodbine Mile with a wide trip, and before that just missed by a neck in the Fourstardave. He can seemingly work out a favorable stalking journey in the Shadwell.

Two-time Horse of the Year Wise Dan (#6, 4-5) is 14 for 15 on turf and so often finds a way to win, even when he appears vulnerable. That noted, has not been as dominant in his wins this year as in the past - hence taking a shot to try to beat him.

Seek Again (#8, 7-2) won the Fourstardave despite traffic problems and came within a head of Wise Dan in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic on Derby Day. He is a logical contender but will be well-backed.