King's preview: Feature is good betting race

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Wednesday’s ninth race at Churchill Downs is more than the richest race of the day at the track. To these eyes, it also offers the best wagering opportunity.

With fifth- and fourth-place finishes in her last two starts clouding her form, the price should be square on NAPLES GOLD (#4, 4-1), who is a move-up candidate with the return to the Churchill Downs turf, where she has consistently run her best races. She won a maiden race last fall and was second to the talented Bitty Kitty in June.

Granted, she ran fifth the last time she raced at Churchill in September, but she didn’t get her preferred trip. She seems to run most effectively when able to launch her rally in the clear, even if it means losing ground.

WICKED TEMPER (#1, 6-1) is returned to allowance company after failing to keep pace in a stakes race at Indiana Grand last out. She is well drawn in post 1, in a position to save ground, and finished second the last time she faced similar Sept. 7. She actually finished in front of the top choice in that Sept. 7 race, though she had the better trip of the two fillies.

FINN'S JEWEL (#10, 5-1) is another stakes dropper and has paired up 79 Beyer Speed Figures in her two starts on grass. A scratch brings her in slightly, with her now starting from post 9, but she still looks at risk of losing ground, being a midpack closer who can neither outsprint the leaders nor take back out of traffic.

Spot plays

Race 1: FIORETTI (#2, 5-2) has been prone to running second over her 13-race career but may get over the hump in this $50,000 non-winners-of-two claimer. She is capable of running Beyers in the 68-71 range when at her best, suggesting that she is the fastest dirt filly in this race. Her relatively low-profile connections won’t attract mutuel attention and should keep her odds around her morning line.

Race 3: HEADSTONE (#6, 3-1) looks well suited to a cutback in distance to seven furlongs after tiring a bit to be fourth in a route at Keeneland last month; lowest tag in four starts.

Race 4: VENUS DE MILO (#7, 7-2) just missed in a rich $25,000 claimer at Kentucky Downs with a close second, which followed an eye-catching win at Indiana Grand despite her breaking five lengths or more behind the field; likely sits a perfect pressing trip on the outside.

Early changes

RACE 1
SCRATCH #5 Canaryinacoalmine

RACE 3
SCRATCH #1 Volunteer Hero (part of entry, #1A Barley Twist will run)
SCRATCH #2 Valdina's Will
SCRATCH #5 Tschiffely

RACE 5
SCRATCH #4 Ninette de Valois

RACE 6
SCRATCH #7 Ocean Front

RACE 7
LATE SCRATCH #4 Media Buzz

RACE 8
NOTE: #2 Copse is a first-time-reported gelding
SCRATCH #12 Hadda Notion

RACE 9
SCRATCH #9 Temper
SCRATCH #14 MTO Another Incident

RACE 10
SCRATCH AE #13 Assipattle
SCRATCH AE #14 Rocky Bear