King's preview: Course conditions favor Ball Dancing

Rainy weather in Lexington over the last 48 hours is expected to leave the grass course yielding for Saturday’s races, and the condition of the turf needs to be considered by anyone playing the races there, particularly with regard to the Queen Elizabeth II on the grass.

The wet course conditions should play to the strength of one filly in particular: BALL DANCING (#6, 9-2).

Besides having won her first start in the U.S. on firm ground in the Grade 2 Sands Point at Belmont, she also won a race on good-to-soft going in France this year. That good-to-soft designation is probably the closest thing to what we call a yielding course.

That race in France was contested at 1 3/8 miles and timed in 2:21 and change. For the purposes of comparison, if the race were run at 1 1/4 miles, a distance with which U.S. horseplayers have more familiarity, it likely would have been timed in 2:07 or 2:08. That suggests the course was a bog.

Expect BALL DANCING to drop from her morning line of 9-2, likely to 7-2 or so, as she is likely to get bet given the course conditions.

Others to use with BALL DANCING in the gimmicks include MINORETTE, another former Euro who won the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks on "good" turf in July, and SEA QUEEN, a consistent performer and course winner who has never been worse than fourth in eight starts.

Spot plays

Race 5: Dr Turkmen (#4, 4-1) turned in a quality debut, surging from fourth to take the lead, only to weaken to second late. Starting for a low-profile barn should keep the price respectable.

Race 7: Lovely Marie (#5, 6-1) won at first asking for trainer Larry Jones, and his 2-year-olds typically run much faster as they gain experience. This one is likely better than the modest first-out Beyer Speed Figure.