King's preview: Bayern will be overbet

Saturday, April 26, preview

Churchill Downs kicks off Derby week Saturday evening, unveiling its new $12 million “Big Board” high-definition television, while unfortunately ushering in a new era of higher takeout. Win, place, and show bets have received a hike from track executives to go from 16 percent to 17.5 percent, and all other wagers go from 19 to 22 percent.

The racing Saturday is solid, with the Derby Trial, the traditional opening-day feature, offering a nice cast, even with Chitu being scratched from it to run in the Derby.

Trainer Bob Baffert said Saturday morning that Bayern would run in the Derby Trial – given his prospects of making an oversubscribed Derby next week appearing doubtful. And allthough Bayern is the most likely winner of the Derby Trial, he seems sure to be overbet, in part having been mentioned in recent weeks as a potential Kentucky Derby starter.

The upset choice is Myositis Dan, who is at his best racing around one turn. He is also a fast horse, having run a 93 Beyer Speed Figure when second to Anchor Down in an allowance at Gulfstream Park on March 1.

Notably finishing third in that allowance was Danza, who would go on to score a stunning upset at 41-1 odds in the Arkansas Derby.

Myositis Dan followed that runner-up finish at Gulfstream with a win over the Polytrack at Keeneland.

Another intriguing entrant is Embellishing Bob, who was a fast winner of a six-furlong maiden race at Fair Grounds in his third start March 29, running a 98 Beyer and completing his final quarter mile in 23.97 after setting the early pace.

Earlier in race 3, Anahauc is an appealing alternative to a short-priced Socialbug. Anahauc comes off an eye-catching win at Fair Grounds in which she ran a 102 Beyer, but with Socialbug coming from California and appearing lone speed, she will be backed to favoritism.

Cold Facts looms an attractive wager in race 2, and Highroller Dave looks to be the best single for multi-race bets in race 5.