King's preview: Allowance sprints share spotlight

Two second-level allowances with $62,500 claiming conditions are the headline races for Sunday at Churchill Downs – one for older fillies and mares that goes as the fifth and another for older males that is run later as the ninth.

Let’s handicap first with the fifth – in which Jamaican Smoke figures to go off a clear favorite. And in looking at her past performances at first glance, one can understand why. She’s Grade 1 placed, is a winner at Churchill Downs, and has leading rider Corey Lanerie up.

Though a contender, at her morning line of 8-5 or less, there seems little upside to backing her at the windows. She is a horse that has let down the public before, and often, such types repeat such trends.

She is in the midst of a 10-race losing streak, and she has fit in many of those starts, starting at odds of 2-1 or less in five of those races and another couple times at odds around 7-2.

In many of her defeats, she was on the lead or right in contention at the eighth pole, only to tire late. And now in Sunday’s fifth, she is racing seven furlongs, a little longer than what she has been running.

An alternative value play is Elusive Fate, a filly who actually rallied to nail Jamaican Smoke for the place in a six-furlong allowance earlier in the meet. And she followed that race with a useful third-place finish next time out.

She’s an even-paced runner who likely can run down Jamaican Smoke, unless the latter gets away to an easy lead.

Meanwhile in the ninth, a rare full field of 12 was entered, but there already were three early scratches, as reported early Sunday morning.

The strength of the race seems to be drawn toward the outside, with top choice Red Hot Randy in post 10 and Bull Dozer in post 11.

Although Bull Dozer has the far better record, 15 for 41 compared to 2 for 21 for Red Hot Randy, the latter has the stronger recent form and higher Beyer Speed Figures of late.

Red Hot Randy has run significantly faster since joining the barn of veteran trainer Dave Kassen. Half of his last six dirt starts have resulted in Beyers in the 90s.

Spot plays

Race 3
SHAKESPERIAN DREAM (#1, 5-2) ran a blah third in an off-the-turf race May 30 in the slop but has strong turf and Polytrack form and should run significantly better on the grass.

Race 6
GREELY'S STRIKER (#1, 3-1) might not ultimately prove the best of this lineup, but hopefully she's just best today. She has an experience edge with a second and a third in two starts and is facing exclusively first-timers in this baby race.

Early scratches

Race 2
#1 Muzu

Race 4
#2 Zip It Kim

Race 7
#12 Striking Impact

Race 8
#2 Positively; #6 Bagg O'Day; #7 Kendall's Boy