King's preview: 3 spot plays for Thursday card

Jockey changes for injured Rosie Napravnik

Since entries for Thursday’s card at Churchill were made Saturday – before jockey Rosie Napravnik was injured in a training accident Sunday morning – there are some jock changes on horses on which she was named to ride.

In race three, #1 Runaway Kitten will now be ridden by leading rider Corey Lanerie, and in race 9, Lanerie also picks up another one of her scheduled mounts on #6 Cover Shoot.

The other jockey substitution for Napravnik is in the sixth, a race in which Robby Albarado picks up #6 The Best Glacier.

Napravnik injured her clavicle – a bone in the shoulder – and is expected to be away from riding for a month to six weeks. She was hurt when the horse she was breezing, Socialbug, broke down late in her work. Socialbug, trained by Bob Baffert, was euthanized.

Talented French Press back after flashy debut score

French Press (#1, 3-1), a sharp first-out winner of a maiden race at Churchill on Oaks Day, is back for her second start in race 8, a first-level allowance with a $75,000 claiming condition.

Having run an 80 Beyer Speed Figure in her debut and winning over a next-out winner, there is nothing to fault about her lone performance.
That doesn’t necessarily make her a great bet, however. Such types tend to be heavily bet.

In the case of her trainer, Al Stall, over the last five years, he has run 15 older first-out winners back in allowances or optional claimers. The results? Three wins, three seconds, and three thirds – or in percentages, 20 percent were first, and 60 percent were among the top three.

All three winners, and in fact most of the starters, were short prices. The three winners averaged odds of just more than $1.26-1 – meaning a $2 bet on each would have returned an average of $0.91.

The expectation, therefore, is that French Press will be bet down from her 3-1 morning line. So as an alternative, this horseplayer plans to back State Visit (#5, 5-2), who was equally impressive in a victory here in winning a maiden race at the Churchill meet, though in her fifth start after facing some salty maidens to begin her career.

Spot plays

Race 3
UMUSTBEKIDDING (#5, 4-1) goes from a straight maiden race into a maiden $25,000 claimer and should benefit from the experience he gained in his debut; blinkers off for a good barn and bred to appreciate stretching out to 1 1/8 miles – being by Lemon Drop Kid out of an A.P. Indy mare.

Race 5
CENTELLA (#3, 3-1) ran a distant third against a notch-easier maiden $20,000 stock after resenting a hard hold from her jock in a slow-paced race; would expect her to appreciate a cutback in distance to seven furlongs and now picks up Corey Lanerie in her first start off the claim for trainer Angel Montano.

Race 6
THE BEST GLACIER is a stakes dropper who shows up for a $25,000 tag after racing sporadically this year; first or second in 21 of 53 starts and Amoss and Maggi Moss in his corner; class edge and a logical single for multi-race gimmicks.

Early scratches

Race 7
#13 Law Dog; #15 Steel Guitar

Race 8
#6 Hunting Hill

Race 9
#7 China Holiday; #14 Gill's Terrace