King Zachary trying to validate Matt Winn score in Indiana Derby

If you’re betting King Zachary in the Indiana Derby, you’re mainly putting your money behind his performance in the Matt Winn Stakes.

Sure, King Zachary was a pricey auction horse who flashed talent before the June 16 Matt Winn, but before that showing, King Zachary had flopped in his lone stakes try, had only maiden and allowance wins atop his résumé, and had a career-best Beyer Speed Figure of a modest 79.

The Matt Winn will either prove to have been a breakthrough or an outlier. There, King Zachary chugged along just off the speed, keeping odds-on Ax Man in his sights, and when King Zachary came to the leaders at the quarter pole, he clipped right on past, pushing out to a 4 3/4-length victory that produced a 98 Beyer.

“He came out of there training like a man, like he’s figured the game out,” trainer Dale Romans said. “I think he’ll just keep moving forward.”

That’s entirely possible, but bettors must weigh the other potential outcomes against a short price – King Zachary is the 6-5 morning-line favorite among nine horses entered in the Grade 3, $500,000 Indiana Derby. Robby Albarado has the mount, and King Zachary has post 8 in the featured ninth race on a 10-race, six-stakes card that starts at 5:30 p.m. Central on Saturday.

Immediately preceding the main event, the richest race in Indiana, is the Grade 3, $200,000 Indiana Oaks, in which Talk Veuve to Me will be an even shorter (and probably more dependable) favorite than King Zachary. Before the Oaks come four $100,000 stakes. The two turf races, the Warrior Veterans (race 7) and the Indiana General Assembly Distaff (race 6) are the more playable of the quartet, though the Michael G. Schaefer Memorial features the return of Grade 1 winner Seeking the Soul.

The temperature Saturday in Shelbyville, Ind., is forecast to rise into the mid-90s, and the sun doesn’t set until about 9:10, 38 minutes before the Indiana Derby’s scheduled post time.

If not King Zachary, the Indiana Derby is thrown wide open, though Title Ready holds some appeal. Don’t expect to get a price nearly as high as the 12-1 morning line on Title Ready, but he might still offer value. Title Ready was a colt on the come early in the Oaklawn Park meeting, winning an allowance race and holding well for fourth in Magnum Moon’s Rebel Stakes win after setting the pace.

Title Ready disappointed when finishing fourth as the odds-on favorite in the Northern Spur Stakes but lost little in defeat while chasing Ax Man through the slop at Pimlico in the Sir Barton Stakes. He finished fourth last out in the Ohio Derby but had to be steadied past the eighth pole, compromising trouble.

Trigger Warning was third in the Ohio Derby at odds of 86-1, but the performance might not have been fluky. Trigger Warning was making his first dirt-route start on Lasix that day, got caught three wide around both turns, and galloped out in front shortly past the wire.

Dark Vader finished a close third last out in the Easy Goer Stakes at Belmont, a one-turn race, and looked more comfortable winning a two-turn allowance the race before at Santa Anita. Axelrod was second in the Affirmed Stakes at Santa Anita but profiles slightly below Dark Vader.

Funny Duck’s big win came over heavy slop in the one-turn Pat Day Mile in May, and he pulled too hard early in the Matt Winn before fading late. Givemeaminit will hope for a pace meltdown, while Blame the Rider, whose connections won this race last year with Irap, will hope their horse’s turf form transfers to dirt.