King: You can't go wrong betting Asmussen, Lanerie

With Churchill Downs beginning its September season Friday and with four stakes Saturday, now is an opportune time to examine the meet, which began in 2013, replacing the fading-in-quality meet that had been run at Turfway Park.

Most notably, there have been two constants at Churchill in September: Trainer Steve Asmussen and jockey Corey Lanerie have either won or tied for leading honors in their respective categories by meet’s end.

Neither result is a surprise. Asmussen has a large stable and excels at preparing youngsters, who have more opportunities at this time of year than in the spring, and Lanerie has consistently shown over recent years that no one rides the main track at Churchill better than he does.

Pointing out Asmussen and Lanerie’s success at Churchill may seem like stating the obvious, but consider this: Betting Asmussen and Lanerie blindly over the past three September meets would have yielded a profit. A $2 wager on each of Asmussen’s runners would have averaged a $2.72 return, while bets on Lanerie would have averaged $2.37.

Asmussen also leads the way in terms of first-out juvenile winners, having won with 5 of 22 starters over the past three September meets. But with many having flashy pedigrees, they are often well backed.

One such youngster, Capering, debuts in the fourth race Saturday. She is a daughter of Bernardini and a half-sister to Grade 2 winner Teen Pauline and is owned by Stonestreet Farm. Her start comes a day after Untapped, a half-sister to the champion Untapable, was scheduled to debut for Asmussen and owner/breeder Winchell Thoroughbreds.

Besides Lanerie, other jockeys who have statistically done well year after year during September at Churchill include Shaun Bridgmohan, Brian Hernandez Jr., and Ricardo Santana Jr.

A key point regarding the jockey colony coming into this year: Santana and Florent Geroux have momentum, with Santana winning 14 races at Saratoga this summer to be ninth, best among Kentucky riders, and Geroux dominating at Kentucky Downs. Both also ride for Asmussen.

Dale Romans has twice tied Asmussen for leading trainer at Churchill in the three-year history of the September meet, doing so in 2013 and 2015, and he was only one win off co-leaders Wayne Catalano and Asmussen in 2014.

With some longshot winners scoring in 2015 and 2013, a $2 wager on each of Romans’s runners over that three-meet stretch would have yielded an average return of $3.22.

Lanerie and Robby Albarado are the riders he uses most often in Kentucky.

Getting back to juveniles, who play a big part in the September cards at Churchill, the only other trainers besides Asmussen with more than one debut winner over the past few meets are Catalano (2 for 11), Eddie Kenneally (2 for 10), and Romans (2 for 20).

Shifting to other types of races, there is not as much quality grass racing at Churchill in September as during its spring and fall meets. Coming on the heels of a Kentucky Downs meet with enormous purses, this is to be expected.

Without any direct overlap between the tracks this year, look for some more Kentucky Downs returnees this meet at Churchill. One such horse, Lucky Ramsey, is favored in the fifth race Saturday, a starter allowance, after running second in a Kentucky Downs allowance a couple of weeks ago.

Trainers with more than one win on the Churchill grass over the three September meets are headed by Catalano (5 for 12), Wesley Ward (3 for 8), Vickie Foley (2 for 3), Tom Amoss (2 for 4), Charlie LoPresti (2 for 4), Steve Margolis (2 for 5), Kellyn Gorder (2 for 8), Rusty Arnold (2 for 9), Ken McPeek (2 for 11), Romans (2 for 16), and Mike Maker (2 for 17).

The September meet continues into October for the first time this year, concluding Oct. 2, before racing shifts to Keeneland on Oct. 7.

Saturday’s program is one of the better cards, highlighted by a pair of Win and You’re In Challenge races for the Breeders’ Cup in the Iroquois and Pocahontas. In those key Breeders’ Cup preps, I prefer horses who have trainers with established September success at Churchill: the Romans-trained Not This Time in the Iroquois and Asmussen’s Ever So Clever in the Pocahontas.