King: X Y Jet can topple Daredevil in Swale

More often than not, when a horse owns the top last-race Beyer Speed Figure, the horse is favored. And if by chance that figure came against top company recently and over the track where the horse is running again, a short price also is likely.

Yet there is a horse in Saturday’s Swale Stakes at Gulfstream who holds those advantages but is unlikely to be the public’s choice. He is X Y Jet, and he is worth a bet.

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He isn’t favored because the Swale field includes Daredevil, a Grade 1-winning comebacker from the Todd Pletcher stable whose only defeat came when he ran 11th while racing two turns in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall.

If Daredevil had drawn where X Y Jet landed – on the outside in post 7 in the seven-furlong Swale – his class and the tactical edge of him being outside would make him tough to beat. But he didn’t. Instead, Daredevil drew the rail, where a difficult trip looms.

Either Javier Castellano sends Daredevil and takes heat to his outside, or he takes back and lays Daredevil in a stalking, inside spot – a potentially intimidating position for a young horse.

Throw in a layoff, and the vulnerability in Daredevil is apparent.

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Edgard Zayas on X Y Jet has more options with his horse, being drawn outside and able to clock those inside him. But there is a concern with this horse, too – he has never run to his full potential without claiming the early lead.

I’m not convinced that he is quick enough to shake free, but at a bare minimum, X Y Jet ought to be in the clear, away from trouble and able to turn up the heat on his inside rivals as needed.

X Y Jet is a fast horse. He ran a 92 Beyer in finishing a close second in the Hutcheson Stakes, and on two other occasions in his last four starts, he has posted 88 Beyers. And for those reasons, he is an alternative selection to Daredevil in the Swale.

Playing against The Great War

In the other major stakes for 3-year-olds Saturday, the 1 1/16-mile John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway, another favorite is a bet-against – in this case, The Great War.

A blowout winner of the 96Rock Stakes and fourth previously in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he is unquestionably a talented horse who likes racing on Polytrack, the synthetic surface at Turfway.

The concern is that eight of his nine races have come going 6 1/2 furlongs or shorter, with the exception coming in the Breeders’ Cup. Under the direction of trainer Aidan O’Brien for his first eight starts before being transferred to Wesley Ward for a U.S. campaign, the decision to almost exclusively sprint The Great War hints that O’Brien had reservations about the colt’s ability to stay a distance.

So, at a short price – he was 1-10 odds in his first race at Turfway – I have no desire to gamble on The Great War.

Instead, I will try 8-1 Task Force Glory, who has raced two turns in all six starts and won a race at 1 1/8 miles on grass at Churchill in November.

Last out, Task Force Glory was moved up to second on a disqualification in a turf allowance at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 14, and in that race, he was at a disadvantage because of an outside draw that contributed to him having the widest trip in the race.

Albano over Hattaash in exacta

Last up Saturday night is the $100,000 Maxxam Gold Cup at Sam Houston – a race that the favored Albano should win. He received a needed comeback race when third in the Louisiana Handicap at Fair Grounds last month, and he showed quality last year at age 3 with a win in the Pegasus Stakes and runner-up finishes in the Risen Star and Haskell Invitational.

If Albano wins, as I expect, the key to making money is in the exotic wagers. And the strategy here will be to play a straight exacta to the late-running Hattaash. He looks ready to pick up the pieces if the comebacking C J’s Awesome grows fatigued while having to deal with Albano early.

That seems a distinct possibility. Hattaash packs a strong finish, and C J’s Awesome shows a limited work tab leading up to his first race of the year.