King: Wrong horse may go favored in Gallant Bloom

Although short fields dominate the graded-stakes landscape Saturday, there still are a few stakes of wagering interest, beginning with the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom at Belmont Park and continuing with the Grade 3 Ack Ack and Lukas Classic from Churchill Downs.

In the Gallant Bloom, I’m itching to play Paulassilverlining, who looks deserving of favoritism but is instead the 3-1 second choice on the morning line. This seemingly is due to her having finished fifth in her most recent start, the Grade 1 Ballerina, and the star power of Wavell Avenue, last year’s Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint winner and the morning-line favorite here.

I’m willing to forgive Paulassilverlining’s fifth in the Ballerina, which was one of the better female turf sprints of the year and a race in which she was beaten only 2 1/2 lengths. It was by no means a poor race.

Even in running fifth, it is worth noting that she still finished 2 3/4 lengths in front of Wavell Avenue, who, in contrast to the forward-running Paulassilverlining, was never involved in the race. Wavell Avenue, as she has done several times this year, lacked the powerful closing kick she exhibited last fall.

It is easy to appreciate Paulassilverlining if one looks past the Ballerina. She had been first or second in her five previous races in 2016, including when beaten just a neck in the Grade 2 Honorable Miss at Saratoga by Haveyougoneaway, the Ballerina winner and one of the current Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint favorites.

Adding to Paulassilverlining’s attraction is a 2-for-2 record at Belmont and past success on wet tracks – a possibility with rain in the forecast this week in New York.

All things being equal, I would have preferred to have seen regular rider Jose Ortiz on her again Saturday, but he is on Hot City Girl, another filly he has often ridden. But Paulassilverlining certainly has an excellent replacement in John Velazquez. I expect he will have her in a favorable stalking position just off the leaders.

Live longshot in Ack Ack

The champion sprinter Runhappy returns in the one-mile Ack Ack, but at 1-2 on the morning line and being unraced since December after a delayed return from a foot bruise and cannon-bone bruising, there is potential upside to betting against him.

I’m going to try 10-1 outsider The Truth Or Else, who has noticeably improved this summer when shortened to one-turn races and allowed to develop into a deep closer. He scored a 28-1 upset in an allowance at Belmont in July and followed that with a fifth and a sixth in a pair of stakes at Saratoga in which he earned Beyer Speed Figures in the 90s.

Those efforts don’t come close to matching the typical best from Runhappy, but the thinking here is that if Runhappy is beaten, it will be because he doesn’t run his typically awesome race.

The Truth Or Else has a polar-opposite style to the front-running Runhappy, so he won’t be doing the dirty work of chasing.

He’s not a high-percentage winner, given the task of beating Runhappy, but the value should be there if The Truth Or Else can somehow run down the champ.

Take Breaking Lucky in Lukas Classic

Horses with large last-race Beyer edges are typically short-priced favorites, but that seems unlikely to be the case with Breaking Lucky in the Lukas Classic.

Although Breaking Lucky recently finished a close fourth in the Grade 1 Woodward with a 105 Beyer, a figure nine points or more higher than all of his opponents, he is the 5-2 co-second choice on the morning line due to his facing Noble Bird and Bradester, winners of the Grade 1 Stephen Foster at Churchill in 2014 and 2015, respectively.

Both of those rivals come off distant losses and have front-running styles that figure to have them running with each other early.

Breaking Lucky, on the other hand, figures to sit a favorable stalking trip right behind him. And if Breaking Lucky runs as well as he did in the Woodward, or even in defeating synthetic specialists Are You Kidding Me and Melmich in the Seagram Cup at Woodbine over the summer, he is going to be very difficult to beat.