King: Wicked Strong offers value
At the risk of seeming like Dr. Seuss’s The Grinch – with a heart two sizes too small – my wagering strategy in the Belmont will be to bet Wicked Strong and, to a lesser extent, Tonalist to upset California Chrome in the final leg of the Triple Crown.
California Chrome is the best horse but doesn’t warrant backing at a short price to win the Belmont, a taxing 1 1/2-mile race that has foiled many talented horses after they won the first two legs.
His short odds should boost the prices on alternatives. And Wicked Strong looks to have the most potential of California Chrome’s opponents.
The winner of the Grade 1 Wood Memorial, he has been off five weeks since the Kentucky Derby – historically the ideal preparation for the Belmont – and is now running at his home base of Belmont Park, where he won a maiden race as a juvenile in 2013.
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This is a horse who didn’t have the greatest trip in the Kentucky Derby, racing wide into the first turn and then running behind horses in traffic during the second half of the race. By no means did it cost him the race, but for him to grab fourth under such circumstances validated his quality.
Tonalist seems the next-best value-based option behind Wicked Strong, having stylishly won the Peter Pan Stakes after flashing talent at Gulfstream in winning a maiden race and running second to eventual Florida Derby winner Constitution in an allowance.
He missed the Wood Memorial due to a lung infection and, in turn, the Kentucky Derby. But perhaps the easier schedule of winning the Peter Pan will leave him better prepared for the Belmont. The talent is there.
California Chrome will be tough, having what this handicapper would estimate to be a 50 percent chance of winning. But if he sticks to his 3-5 morning-line odds, that is simply not a good win wager.
Of the rest, General a Rod, Ride On Curlin, and Commanding Curve should be considered for those going deep in the gimmicks.
General a Rod is the preferred one of that trio, being eligible to improve following terrible trips in the first two legs of the Triple Crown. A front-runner, he broke poorly and had to rally from behind when 11th in the Derby, and then when stalking the pace in the Preakness, he was shuffled back behind a tiring Ria Antonia and yet still finished fourth, missing third in a photo.