King: Villandry offers value for win, pick three bets

When Silver Max raced in last month’s Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland, I thought after a half-mile that he might be the winner. The heavily favored Wise Dan had broken slowly, and Silver Max was alone on the lead, setting a comfortable half-mile in 48.27 seconds.

Instead, he merely maintained his lead for another couple of furlongs before getting passed in the stretch by four rivals – granted of high quality – Wise Dan, Grand Arch, Sayaad, and Kaigun.

Dropped in class for Saturday’s Grade 3 River City at Churchill Downs, Silver Max is the 7-5 favorite on the morning line, and come post time, many will be betting on him to rebound with a victory.

Not this handicapper. Though Silver Max could win – he is, after all, a Grade 1 winner with earnings of almost $2 million – he seems off form, based not only on his Shadwell Turf Mile but also a last-place finish after dueling for the lead in the Grade 2 Fourstardave this summer at Saratoga.

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My strategy will be to alternatively bet Villandry, an 8-1 shot, as a value horse in the win pool while emphasizing him in a late pick three play.

Why Villandry? Besides having shown a liking for the Churchill Downs turf, where he is 2 for 5, Villandry is also a winner at 1 1/8 miles, the distance of the River City. And in contrast to Silver Max, who ran poorly despite a favorable pace setup last out, Villandry did the opposite, managing a third in the Grade 3 Sycamore after stalking extraordinarily slow splits.

He is also battle tested in top company, having raced in five straight stakes, earning Beyer Speed Figures of 90 or higher in each of those tries, and three of those five stakes starts came in graded company.

Add that up, and Villandry is an overlay if he sticks to his 8-1 morning-line price and is still playable in the win pool if no lower than 6-1.

As for the late pick three, a look at the sequence follows below, beginning with the race before the River City, the eighth race.

The takeout on the pick three at Churchill is 22 percent, unfortunately hiked this year from 19 percent but still better than average for that wager, which falls mostly in the 23 percent to 24 percent range.

Race 8: Two horses go down as ‘A’ or primary plays in Daily Racing Form ’s Ticketmaker program: Sassy Kiss (#6) and Devious d’Oro (#8). Both horses are consistent and come into this allowance following runner-up finishes under similar conditions.

I also will try a couple of others as secondary ‘B’ plays: the speedy Twenty Three Darby (#2) and You Bought Her (#4), who upset Devious D’oro in their last meeting. Twenty Three Darby and You Bought Her are capable of a fast race but are inconsistent.

Race 9, River City : Again, Villandry (#4) is my choice in the River City, though he is more of an attractive value play than a high-percentage winner. Still, given his appealing morning line, he goes down as an ‘A’ – due to his potential to blow up the late pick three with a victory.

Four horses go down as ‘Bs’ – Gentleman’s Kitten (#2), Guys Reward (#5), Silver Max (#6), and Under Control (#11).

The use of Silver Max is a protective play – if by chance he returns to form. Obviously, any other one of the selections would make the pick three return much better.

Race 10: The last race is a maiden $50,000 race in which I will use one ‘A’ runner in Bottom Line (#4), who drops into a maiden claimer after two decent straight maiden tries, and a pair of ‘B’ runners in Blame Angel (#5) and Peacenquiet (#10), both of whom are lightly raced horses with move-up potential for good trainers.

The tickets : Plugging the horses into Ticketmaker with a 50-cent minimum wager on the pick three and with a budget of $31 yields the combinations below: