King: Using multiple tools to find lone-speed horses

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – The angle of playing lone-speed horses is not new, though some of the tools for isolating these types might be. With pace figures now readily available for horseplayers, as well as a visual early forecast found with TimeformUS’s Pace Projector, no longer must bettors simply judge pace by glancing at running lines in the past performances.

My strategy is to blend the new with the old, beginning with a look at the Pace Projector and following that up with a past-performance evaluation. In examining the PP’s, I identify the best races of each runner at the approximate distance of that day’s race and note where each horse raced early.

I hope this allows me to get in the mind of the jockey or the trainer giving the jockey instructions, knowing they would like to replicate what had been a winning or near-winning formula.

Then, I take into account post position and any equipment changes, figuring that horses with inside posts will be more likely to be sent to secure position, while those adding blinkers also logically figure to be more on the muscle.

By no means do I claim this to be a perfect strategy. But it is my strategy, and doing so allows me to quickly get a feel for the pace of a race before moving on to analyze other key factors.

In handicapping Saturday’s card at Churchill Downs, it didn’t take me long to find a lone-speed play. I like Doggerwinii to potentially lead throughout in the opener, a six-furlong sprint for $25,000 claimers.

A 6-1 shot on the morning line, she is the fastest speed horse in TimeformUS’s Pace Projector, followed by fellow longshot Awesome Music.

In looking at the past performances, I get the feeling that Awesome Music will be rated off Doggerwinii. Awesome Music’s wins this summer, coming under Saturday’s jockey Ty Kennedy, came when she raced in second behind a clear leader. She is drawn to the outside of Doggerwinii, and one would think that Kennedy would try to implement these tactics again.

As for the others, they seem most effective as stalkers or closers.

I’m hopeful this absence of pace will allow Doggerwinni to carve out slow fractions, something she wasn’t able to do in her latest when matched against optional claimers and bumped at the start in a race at Indiana Grand. Perhaps with the luxury of an easy lead, she can show more fight than she has in losing four starts this year.

Doggerwinii is not the best horse in the race on paper, but she certainly has every right to run to her potential given the makeup of the field. I will play her to win and play exacta boxes with her and Miss Cobblestone and Big Red Seven.

Dogwood: Student Body all the way

Later on the card, the featured Dogwood Stakes is an interesting contest, having drawn a full field with plenty of riddles within the past performances.

Although a fast pace appears probable, the front-running Student Body has appeal from the talent and value perspectives. Although she has little chance of sticking to her 12-1 morning line, she may still be a better price than she was when 4-1 in the Grade 2 Prioress at Saratoga.

In the Prioress, she set the pace from her inside post in the slop for a half-mile, only to succumb to pressure late and fade to fifth. But Student Body was only four lengths away from runner-up Nonna Mela, and considering that she had a right to bounce off a blazing-quick win at Ellis Park against much easier, Student Body can be forgiven.

Though I wish there were fewer speed horses in the lineup, Student Body commands attention with a class drop and seems worthy of backing, particularly since likely favorite Farrell appears to be prepping in the Dogwood at a distance shorter than her best after being away since getting eased in the May 5 Kentucky Oaks.