King: Upon further review, take Bigger Picture in Elkhorn

In handicapping Saturday’s Grade 2, $250,000 Elkhorn Stakes at Keeneland, my first reaction was to pick Red Rifle.

He was a troubled third in his seasonal debut at Gulfstream Park in a stakes-quality allowance, and in looking at his entire race record in DRF Formulator, I noticed a close second-place finish in the 2014 Sycamore at Keeneland over soft ground, conditions that could reappear Saturday with steady rain forecast.

Yet I ultimately chose to go with Bigger Picture, who has performed on grass more consistently than Red Rifle over the past year or so. Bigger Picture has two wins, a second, and a fourth in his last four starts in graded stakes at 1 3/8 miles or longer. And his two defeats were by a nose and three-quarters of a length.

Bigger Picture, like Red Rifle, seems at home on a wet course, with the aforementioned nose loss coming when he was second in last fall’s Sycamore on “good” turf.

Plus, Bigger Picture comes off a sharp work – a five-furlong breeze in 59 seconds and change at Churchill Downs Trackside last Saturday – not the kind of move one would expect from a long-distance turf horse.

Bigger Picture will need racing luck, which is so vital in turf races, but with his up-close, stalking style, hopefully he can carve out a favorable trip under Jose Ortiz.

As for California invader Itsinthepost, I’m against him in this race, viewing the turf marathoners out West as a not particularly talented lot. So, Red Rifle and Danish Dynaformer are the horses I’ll use underneath Bigger Picture in the exacta.

War Story price play in Classic

The only other Grade 2 race Saturday is the Charles Town Classic, where past winners Imperative and Stanford, separated by a head in the Poseidon at Gulfstream in January, are again among the entries.

I’m not interested in backing either. The front-running Stanford faces pressure for the early lead, and Imperative is inconsistent for a high-level stakes horse.

So, I will take 5-1 War Story as a price play. Although a disappointing fifth last out in the Fred Hooper at Gulfstream, his preceding efforts over the winter were encouraging. Besides winning the Queens County at Aqueduct, War Story ran fifth in the Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream against the best older handicap horses around.

Even a fourth in the Cigar Mile at Aqueduct in his race preceding the Queens County was a solid race in which War Story missed third by only a neck.

Following his lackluster effort in the Fred Hooper, War Story was given a brief freshening and now seems to be training with enthusiasm leading up to this race, having worked a couple of bullets at Gulfstream Park West.

Expect him to get a good trip in the Charles Town Classic, sitting in midpack behind the speed.

It’s Your Nickel pick in Illinois Derby

Not to be forgotten Saturday is the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne, where It’s Your Nickel is my choice. The winner of the John Battaglia Memorial on March 4, It’s Your Nickel was overmatched in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland against some of the best 3-year-olds in the country and ran sixth.

Now he is back among friends in this soft Grade 3, in which four of his six rivals are still eligible for a first-level allowance. It’s Your Nickel, on the other hand, is a three-time winner and a stakes winner to boot.

Though his stakes win came on Polytrack at Turfway, It’s Your Nickel can handle dirt. He proved as much when he crossed the wire second, beaten a neck, in a Fair Grounds allowance, only to elevated to first upon the disqualification of stablemate Senior Investment, last week’s upset winner of the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland.

It’s Your Nickel looked sharp in an easy half-mile work in 48.80 seconds Tuesday at Keeneland, where he finished under his own power, hinting that he is ready to rebound from his distant loss in the Blue Grass.

Look for him to sit in the second flight of horses in the early running of the Illinois Derby, tracking the speed horses Hedge Fund, Stand and Cheer, and St. Louie Guy.