King: Unified a single in all-stakes pick four
My advice to horseplayers playing the all-stakes pick four at Belmont Park on Saturday: Keep tabs on the weather. There is a threat of rain Saturday, with the potential to alter the condition of the main track and turf course.
What follows is an analysis of the four stakes, some thoughts on how wet conditions could impact the leading contenders, and a proposed ticket for $21.
Race 7, Ruffian: The Ruffian, for older fillies and mares at a mile on the main track, attracted only six entrants, and with 30-1 longshot Welcome Aboard so badly outclassed, there are truly only five realistic betting options.
There are two obvious horses to use, both of which go down as ‘A’ plays for me in DRF’s TicketMaker: Cavorting (1) and Carrumba (6).
Cavorting is the leading money earner and a three-time graded stakes winner, though always racing shorter distances, and Carrumba is the hot current horse, having won the Grade 3 Top Flight in her seasonal debut after narrowly missing to eventual Apple Blossom winner Forever Unbridled in her final race of 2015 in the Comely.
I slightly prefer Cavorting due to her having kept the best company, but if the track is off, the balance of power shifts toward Carrumba. She won her one start on a wet track in an allowance race at Belmont last year by nine lengths, while Cavorting was unplaced when racing in the slop at Belmont in the 2014 Frizette.
I won’t use any backup ‘B’ plays on my pick four play due to the short field.
Race 8, Beaugay: A 1 1/16-mile grass race for fillies and mares, this race has three horses at 3-1 or less on the morning line – 2-1 Ball Dancing (3), 5-2 Recepta (1), and 3-1 My Miss Sophia (8).
Although My Miss Sophia hasn’t started since October, potentially putting her at a fitness disadvantage, she is my top choice based on what she did against elite company last year on grass. After winning an allowance at Belmont, she ran fourth in the Diana, third in the Ballston Spa, and third in the First Lady at Keeneland.
My Miss Sophia is an ‘A’ play, along with Ball Dancing, who is the best mare if she returns to form. Unplaced in her last two starts, Ball Dancing can perform at a high level if she runs to her potential. She ran a number of dynamite races in the fall of 2014 and the spring of 2015 and enjoys give in the ground.
Recepta is a ‘B’ runner after running fifth of nine in the Jenny Wiley Stakes in her seasonal debut last month, and she has not shown quite the same class as My Miss Sophia and Ball Dancing.
Race 9, Peter Pan: Unified (7) acts like one of the top 3-year-old colts in the country, and he couldn’t have caught a better setup in the 1 1/8-mile Peter Pan.
A dominant winner in each of his two starts, most recently in the Grade 3 Bay Shore at Aqueduct last month, Unified is perfectly drawn in post 7 for the stretch-out in distance from seven furlongs. From that position, and with only a closer to his outside, jockey Jose Ortiz should be able to let Unified kindly settle – letting him effortlessly go to the lead or rate in a comfortable pressing position if a horse to his inside is sent by his rider.
Unified is also established on a wet track, leaving him as a single, the lone ‘A.’
Race 10, Man o’ War: Wake Forest (9) and Kaigun (7), heads apart when first and second in the Grade 2 Pan American at Gulfstream, go down as ‘A’ runners in the Man o’ War.
Although Wake Forest was edged by Kaigun in the Pan American, he is the slightly preferred of the two, with seemingly more right to improve in his second start of the year.
I will toss one ‘B’ horse in the pick four mix with 6-1 shot Up With the Birds (6), who ran fifth in the Elkhorn Stakes at Keeneland last month but is a horse capable of running with top staying grass horses. He also appreciates cut in the ground.
The Play: By inserting the noted horses outlined into TicketMaker, for $21, an all-‘A’ ticket can be played for $1.50, any combination of three ‘A’ horses and a ‘B’ for $1, and two ‘A’ horses and two ‘B’ runners for 50 cents.