King: Ulanbator could be key to Indiana all-stakes pick four

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – When Indiana Grand runs its six-stakes card Saturday evening, it will be the Grade 2 Indiana Derby that grabs the focus of the fans, having drawn well-known 3-year-olds such as Mr. Z, Divining Rod, and Far Right – each of whom competed in at least one Triple Crown race this year.

But the focus of my betting is on another race, the ungraded Michael G. Schaefer Memorial Stakes, where Ulanbator seems a standout.

Coming off a fifth-place finish June 27 in the Grade 3 Cornhusker, my hope is that the public will view him with some degree of skepticism, particularly since he didn’t make an impact at any stage in that race. But he didn’t really figure to run well. That was a salty field, fully deserving of its grading, and the race ultimately was won by Golden Lad, a multiple stakes winner for trainer Todd Pletcher.

And it wasn’t just the winner who was a good one. The runner-up, Electro Red, was a streaking local horse with the home-track edge, the third-place Page McKenney previously had run second in the Pimlico Special, and the fourth-place Carve, nearly a millionaire, had been the runner-up in the Oaklawn and Lone Star handicaps leading into the Cornhusker.

Looking at the Schaefer field, I see good horses but nothing of the quality of Golden Lad, Page McKenney, and Carve – or even, for that matter, a locally based horse with a clear affinity for the track.

Ulanbator warrants a win play if he doesn’t drop below 5-2 on the tote in the Schaefer (race 7) and is a single for me in an all-stakes pick four that culminates with the Indiana Derby.

As for the entire pick four sequence, here’s how I plan to play the wager, constructed with DRF TicketMaker:

Mari Hulman George (race 6)

Recent Churchill allowance winners Unbridledexplosion (5) and Cabana (7) are high-percentage plays – or “A” runners on the pick four tickets. The former is the more consistent of the two, while the latter owns easily the top last-race Beyer Speed Figure (88), though it came in a race rained off the turf that was left with only three horses.

Call Pat (1) is a value horse to throw into the mix as a secondary “B” horse since she offers blow-up potential.

Michael Schaefer Memorial (race 7)

Single Ulanbator (4), who obviously gets “A” treatment.

Indiana Oaks (race 8)

This race looks like the most closely matched of the sequence, so my aim is to go deep here. Oceanwave (1), Sweetgrass (4), and Ahh Chocolate (6) are “A” runners, while the longshot Zeven (8), who only missed by a nose to the older mare Unbridledexplosion last out in the slop at Churchill, is a “B” horse.

Indiana Derby (race 9)

Three horses get in as “A” runners: Mr. Z (1), Divining Rod (2), and Tiz Shea D (3). Of those, Tiz Shea D will be the fattest price of the three, and a victory from him would make a winning pick four ticket the most rewarding.

Two horses warrant use as “B” horses – Island Town (6) and Far Right (7).

Pick four tickets

Plugging the horses mentioned above into TicketMaker, using a 50-cent minimum and a $61 budget, yields a ticket that costs $60.50.