King: Two overachievers worth a look in Kentucky Derby

As a general rule, handicappers appreciate horses who outrun their odds and view with skepticism those who have lost multiple times as a favorite. The former group is viewed as overachievers; the latter as underachievers.

So, as it applies to this year’s Kentucky Derby, who are the overachievers and underachievers, at least in terms of how the public has bet them?

By the standard of performance vs. odds, Louisiana Derby winner International Star is a clear overachiever. In looking only at his five dirt races, he has run to the public’s expectations or surpassed them four times.

After a runner-up finish in a New York-bred stakes in which he was favored at Belmont last summer, he ran fourth in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes as the seventh wagering choice last fall, and then this year at 3, he won the Lecomte, Risen Star, and Louisiana Derby as the seventh, third, and first betting choices.

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays

If one were to quantify those five races, he finished an average of two positions ahead of the wagering choices the public made him.

The unbeaten Materiality also has outrun his odds. Although well backed at 2-1 in all three of his starts, he has never been favored, going off as the second betting choice each time. His speed figures also have continually ascended.

Both Materiality and International Star will have a chance to outperform expectations once again in the Derby. Materiality is expected to start as the third or fourth wagering choice (barring defections), and International Star is probably going to be every bit of 15-1, and perhaps higher.

This method of ranking performance relative to odds isn’t without a flaw. A horse like Dortmund, for example, who has been favored in every one of his starts, can at best match what the public thinks of him under this quantifying method. And that is what he has done in winning every race.

In watching his six races, Dortmund ran as well or better than I expected five times. The only race a little off his lofty standard came when he squeaked out a narrow victory in slow time in the Los Alamitos Futurity.

Naturally, since the Derby draws the cream of the 3-year-old crop, underachieving types aren’t as plentiful as one might find in a race for older maidens or in a nonwinners-of-two claimer.

In looking at the projected field, Mr. Z is the one of the few who jumps out as a money burner – at least he has been in the win pool. Since scoring at first asking, he has lost 11 straight races, seven times at odds of 3-1 or shorter, including on three occasions as the favorite.

Mr. Z did run third last out in the Arkansas Derby at 20-1, but even there he was fatigued over the final quarter-mile and was only a neck away from being caught for the show.

Wood Memorial winner Frosted is another who would have left bettors in the red if they had backed him in each his seven starts, going off at odds of only 2-1 and 3-5 in his two victories. Among his losses, he ran second as the favorite in the Remsen and Holy Bull and faded to fourth in the Fountain of Youth when seemingly poised for a top finish.

Don’t dismiss Mubtaahij

In reading comments on Twitter, it seems a horse some want to toss in the Derby is Mubtaahij, the UAE Derby winner who is coming over from Dubai. The reasoning: He beat little there, and horses from Dubai have struggled over the years.

I wouldn’t argue with those criticisms. They’re true.

But were those behind him of lesser ability than Far Right and Mr. Z – who came home second and third behind American Pharoah in the Arkansas Derby? I don’t think so.

Also, let’s not forget that Mubtaahij won the UAE Derby by eight lengths, geared down, not two or three.

As for the long ship to America, certainly it is a challenge. But American horses have traveled to Dubai and raced successfully, and trainer Wesley Ward has a long history of success bringing over 2-year-olds to Europe and winning or picking up group placings.

Considering their success, I see no reason why trainer Mike de Kock, a respected international horseman, wouldn’t have Mubtaahij primed to run well in the Derby, provided the horse acclimates and trains forwardly over the next couple of weeks.