King: Try Your Luck looks appealing in Regret
RACE REPLAY IS NOT AVAILABLE
There is a star I like running Saturday night at Churchill Downs, though I’m not talking about Effinex in the Stephen Foster Handicap, The Pizza Man in the Wise Dan, Gun Runner in the Matt Winn, or Untapable in the Fleur de Lis. I’m talking about a potential star: Try Your Luck in the Grade 3 Regret.
At least that’s the opinion I hold, having watched her two races on grass in Kentucky this spring. In both cases, Try Your Luck left me thinking she is a highly promising 3-year-old turf filly, perhaps with the talent to become one of the best in her division.
As a horseplayer, I’m thankful that such optimism isn’t shared by everyone. She is 7-2 on the morning line in the Regret, a Grade 3, 1 1/8-mile turf race in which she is the co-second choice behind Auntie Joy.
Why do I hold Try Your Luck in such high regard? She is fast, and her recent races have been knockouts from a visual standpoint.
First in winning a maiden race at Keeneland on April 23, she blew open the race by quickening on the second turn and maintaining her high level of speed to the stretch to win by 9 1/2 lengths with a 90 Beyer Speed Figure. Returning May 14 in a first-level allowance at Churchill at the Regret’s distance, Try Your Luck showed a new dimension, stalking a slow pace before circling the field and drawing away in the lane to win by 3 1/2 lengths with an 88 Beyer.
Try Your Luck can adapt to any scenario, and if she breaks a bit sharper than she did in her latest, when perhaps off a length slowly, she ought to get a great pressing or stalking trip in the Regret, sitting off likely pacesetter and longshot Crooked Stick.
The depth of the field and the fact that Try Your Luck twice raced in maiden claimers to begin her career should create a palatable price, with some bettors turning up their noses at such past-performance lines.
Beyond the appeal of her form, Try Your Luck holds a speed-figure advantage over all but Auntie Joy, who ran a 90 Beyer in finishing a close second to divisional leader Catch a Glimpse in the Edgewood Stakes over the Churchill Downs turf May 6.
Although Auntie Joy certainly ran well in the Edgewood, it is important to realize that she enjoyed a nearly perfect grass trip, saving ground while pocketed for much of the race before finding room in the lane. Even then, her cutting into the lead of Catch a Glimpse late seemed at least partially the result of the winner goofing around, switching leads back and forth when bored and under pressure from her rider.
Add that all up, and Try Your Luck is a confident Regret play.
Takeover Target the pick in Poker
Early Saturday afternoon, I like Takeover Target in the Poker Stakes at Belmont Park at appealing morning-line odds of 4-1 in a short field. A late runner, Takeover Target catches a field with West Coast speedball Obviously, who I don’t entirely trust, and the fast pace Obviously sets should play right to Takeover Target’s closing strength.
Others in the field – Grand Arch and Force the Pass – figure to be bet to improve while making their second starts of the year. And though that is certainly a possibility, I don’t see the upside of betting on that opinion. Too many other horseplayers will be.
I’m hopeful that bettors might view Takeover Target with some degree of skepticism since his recent win in the Dixie Stakes came over some comebackers, including Grand Arch.
More Than Most choice in Lane’s End
I will close out the Saturday stakes action by taking More Than Most in the Lane’s End Stallion Scholarship Stakes at Lone Star Park.
For a horse coming off an 86 Beyer – a speed figure that is seven to 23 points greater than the recent Beyers of her opponents – she is an attractive 4-1 on the morning line. I suppose that is due to her being a 3-year-old filly matched against older mares and shifting from a mile on dirt to 7 1/2 furlongs on turf.
But I see no reason why she shouldn’t run as well against older mares or with a surface move to grass. Prior to her last race, More Than Most had run her best races on turf, not dirt, including when she won the La Senorita Stakes at Retama Park last year at 2.
She simply acts like a quality filly, regardless of surface.