King: Tricks to Doo's experience gives him edge in Swale

The public often sees a fast first-out maiden winner and is eager to bet. And I am as well, though I’d rather take the contrarian view and bet against. Too many of these quick maiden winners regress second out at short prices, opening up wagering opportunities on alternative runners.

For this reason, I am inclined to wager on Saturday’s Grade 3 Swale at Gulfstream, though with only five runners facing the flashy figure horse Strike Power, the ceiling for value is limited. Nevertheless, Strike Power figures to be favored, which could create a palatable win price on Tricks to Doo, my selection and the probable second wagering choice.

I simply trust Tricks to Doo more than Strike Power since he is more seasoned, having raced three times and won two stakes. Strike Power has raced only against maidens, clearing on the lead when sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs.

This class hike leaves Strike Power much more likely to regress, something that is common with quick debut sprint winners in their second start. For every star like Mask or McKinzie – who won stakes in their second start – there seems to be twice as many who disappoint, with horses such as Mojovation and Justasmidge, quick winners at Saratoga and Del Mar last year, respectively, being examples.

So, my strategy for wagering on the Swale is to back Tricks to Doo to win and play him on top of Diamond King and Piven in exactas to capitalize if Strike Power doesn’t repeat his strong debut effort.

Avery Island in Withers

Despite another short field, I’m eager to back Avery Island in the 1 1/8-mile Withers at Aqueduct on Saturday. He comes off a troubled trip when second last fall in the Remsen, though that is not noted in the short comment line on the past performances.

Racing two turns for the first time that day, he was keen to go to the front while passing the stands for the first time and initially seemed to resent coming under a hard hold to sit off the pace. Stuck in traffic until exiting the second turn, he did well to rally for second when a lot of inexperienced horses accustomed to racing on the lead would have quit.

And though he may once again prove a bit eager, being fresh coming into the Withers, I suspect that a better trip is in the cards. He is one of only a couple of speed horses in the race, and he should be first or second early while being able to run more freely.

That kind of smooth run after a difficult trip is the recipe for a forward move. Plus, he is suited to the 1 1/8-mile distance, which might not be said of more than half of the field.

Firenze Fire, his chief rival, ran poorly in his only try around two turns, finishing seventh, beaten 20 lengths, in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, though he did have a fever earlier that week.

Accelerate in San Pasqual

I’ll close with a push on 4-1 shot Accelerate in the San Pasqual at Santa Anita. Although winless in eight starts over the track, he seems to have been a bit unlucky there, catching a number of talented opponents along the way and often just being second or third best.

The field in the San Pasqual suits him better than those from his other races at Santa Anita. Last time out, in the San Antonio, he finished second between Giant Expectations and Collected, two who ran in last week’s Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup against the elite of the division.

Accelerate is a consistent horse who hit the board in seven of eight races last year. The exception came in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, where he was bumped early and forced farther off the pace than usual.