King: Trainer stats hint at which first-timers are fully cranked

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – With the opening of Del Mar and Saratoga this week, the prime summer 2-year-old racing scene is now in full swing. On any given day at either of those tracks, a potential star might be seen, whether in a stakes race or a maiden race.

That was the case Wednesday on opening day at Del Mar, where Brill, a $1 million auction purchase by Medaglia d’Oro, proved an eye-catching winner of the seventh race, posting an 88 Beyer Speed Figure, the highest by a 2-year-old filly in 2018.

Meanwhile, on the East Coast, graded races for juveniles have arrived, with the Grade 3 Schuylerville for fillies at Saratoga on Friday, followed by Saturday’s Grade 3 Sanford there for both sexes. Moreover, Saratoga has a couple of open maiden special weight races those days that should preview stakes horses in the making.

Saturday’s sixth race at Saratoga seemingly represents this theme with Nitrous, who ran second on debut at Churchill, in addition to first-time starters who would appear to have bright futures in Binary, Fed Fever, and Coast, an also-eligible.

These Saratoga maiden contests present challenges for handicappers, particularly early in the meet, with many horses making their debuts and converging on upstate New York from across the country. So, a horseplayer might have to weigh how a 48-second half-mile breeze at Keeneland compares with a 49-second work at Belmont. It is not an apples-to-apples comparison.

In races like these, in which information is limited, I like to look beyond the past performances. Daily Racing Form’s clocker reports obviously present valuable feedback on morning activity, and for those who like pondering statistics, DRF’s Formulator online database provides further insights.

There, filters can isolate histories of trainers to illustrate a trainer’s skill in select areas. For example, in preparation for this column, I filtered the records of many of the most successful 2-year-old trainers at Saratoga over the past three summers to isolate which ones had their youngsters most primed to win first out.

Here are just some of the findings:

◗ Although Todd Pletcher is the leading juvenile trainer at Saratoga over the past few years, one could not simply ride his success to wagering profits. Even with 21 percent of his 2-year-old first-timers winning over the last three summers (and 49 percent hitting the board), a $2 win wager on each would have yielded a $1.64 return.

His runners regularly started among the favorites, with the betting public well aware of his success and taking note of the flashy pedigrees and expensive sale prices of his runners.

◗ Trainer George Weaver’s first-timers were far more rewarding wagers over the past few summers. His runners returned an average of $7.10 due to scoring at a 22 percent clip at overlaid prices. A decent sample size of 27 runners would also suggest that his success was not a fluke, although maintaining an ROI that high is nearly impossible.

◗ From a smaller sample of 13 runners, trainer Rick Violette also proved adept at preparing his first-timers for their debuts at Saratoga, winning with three such starters over the past three summers. Another four runners hit the board. The ROI: $2.20.

In watching a July 8 workout on Xbtv.com from one of his horses – Binary, who goes in the salty sixth race on Saturday – it is easy to understand why. He had Binary rated behind horses before the colt successfully split horses in the lane. This should leave him better prepared for what might be thrown his way first out.

◗ Other trainers with proven Saratoga first-out success include Charlton Baker (3 for 7, $8.51 ROI over the past three summers), Jeremiah Englehart (4 for 21, $2.32 ROI), Eddie Kenneally (2 for 6, $4.40), Ralph Nicks (3 for 6, $9.34), Joe Sharp (2 for 10, $5.12), and Wesley Ward (4 for 17, $2.67).

Horseplayers can dig even deeper within Formulator for added insight. In the case of year-round New York trainers, for example, some have better statistics within the statebred ranks, while others, such as Ward, tend to win more often on turf during the summer.

Ward has historically won most often with his babies at Keeneland and in other short juvenile dashes across the country during the early spring before cooling off and then resuming winning at Saratoga, usually going short on grass.