King: Tommy Macho looks ready for best in Hal's Hope

There are races that come along now and then in which a handicapper has to just briefly glance at the past performances to determine a win play. One horse leaps out, simply leaving you to work on the exotics.

Then there are others in which you change your mind several times. For me, one such race is the Hal’s Hope at Gulfstream Park on Saturday.

Initially, I was drawn to Mr. Jordan, coming off two straight dominant victories, but passed due to his going from Gulfstream Park West, where he has been dominant, to Gulfstream, where he has been far less so. Then I looked hard at Bird Song, with his flashy 99 last-race Beyer Speed Figure prominent in his past performances, yet I ultimately questioned him on the class rise from a second-level allowance into a graded stakes race.

So, in the end, I landed on Tommy Macho, and for better or worse, he seems right. Although fifth and fourth in his last two starts, Tommy Macho is returning to his strength – running a one-turn mile over the Gulfstream main track. He won for fun the last time he did that in the Fred Hooper last February, blowing past eventual millionaire Stanford on his way to a 3 3/4-length victory and a 103 Beyer.

He also has valid excuses for his two losses since. Tommy Macho was beaten 17 1/2 lengths in the Kelso on Oct. 8 when returning from eight months away, and in the following month’s Richard Small at Laurel, he likely hadn’t gotten enough out of his return to be fully prepared for that race. So, his fade to be fourth, beaten four lengths, was understandable.

Fitness doesn’t seem to be an issue this time around. He shows five works since early December at Palm Beach Downs for trainer Todd Pletcher, including a half-mile in 49.20 seconds last Saturday in which he easily bested his workmate, the stakes-winning filly Genre.

Tommy Macho also has other factors in his favor in the Hal’s Hope – namely plenty of speed to set up his stalking rally, and he is reunited with jockey Luis Saez, who is up for the first time since the Fred Hooper score last year.

Disco Chick looks solid

Laurel has a couple of $75,000 stakes races carded earlier on Saturday, both of which offer wagering appeal. The first up is the What a Summer Stakes for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs, conditions that look favorable for Disco Chick.

First or second in 20 of 33 dirt starts, Disco Chick should appreciate facing easier company after chasing Stonetastic and Paulassilverlining in her last two races. There are no such rivals of that quality in the What a Summer.

Disco Chick’s early speed also should give her an edge. Although she hasn’t led at the first call in her last five races, Disco Chick appears to be fast enough to gain that advantage in the What a Summer. Most of her rivals prefer to come from just off the pace, and the inside-drawn Disco Chick owns easily the highest Moss Pace Figures.

Disco Chick likely will see her confidence increase if able to make the lead without having to exert herself, and she’ll likely prove difficult to catch.

Chublicious should get good setup

A deeper field of 11 is lined up at Laurel for the Fire Plug Stakes, a six-furlong race for males. In contrast to the What a Summer, this race drew an above-average amount of speed, setting the stage for a closer or stalker to be successful. And the more I looked at the race, the more I became convinced that Chublicious is the horse most likely to capitalize.

Although not in the form he maintained during the summer months at Monmouth, where he won all three of his starts, Chublicious’s last two races have been respectable, both resulting in close fourth-place finishes. And now, in the third start of his form cycle, he could be ready for another forward move.

Chublicious, 9-2 on the track’s morning line, might slip past the public to some extent, having finished behind a couple of these rivals in recent starts and with his jockey, Victor Carrasco, chilly to start the year.