King: Tiz Windy, Yahilwa add value to all-stakes pick four

Six weeks since the Kentucky Derby, another Grade 1 goes Saturday night at Churchill Downs with the Stephen Foster. That race along with a trio of supporting graded stakes make for a good evening of racing, and with the quartet of stakes going one after another, the sequence makes for an attractive pick four play.

Takeout on the wager at Churchill is 22 percent – not as favorable as in years gone by and above the 19 percent takeout for the wager at bettor-friendly Kentucky tracks Keeneland and Kentucky Downs. But 22 percent is still about the average rake for this bet among tracks in North America. The minimum wager is 50 cents.

What follows below, starting with race 6, is a Ticketmaker play that has overlaid runners and probable winners assigned “A” ratings, and lesser contenders “B” classifications.

Race 6, Regret Stakes: This race has a field of just seven, which makes it difficult to go too deep, particularly since Don’t Leave Me (#1, 3-1) and Lady Zuzu (#3, 7-2), are the classiest turf fillies in the race. They are both “A” plays.

Don’t Leave Me has a record of three wins and a second in five starts, with her only poor performance coming on yielding ground in her final start of last year, after which she was laid off. She won a deep renewal of the Grade 3 Bourbonette at Turfway in March before finishing a close second in the Grade 3 Selene at Woodbine on May 24. And though those two races this year came on Polytrack, not turf, she did win an open allowance last year on turf at Woodbine and has a pedigree to handle grass as well as synthetic.

Lady Zuzu impressed when she won a maiden race at Keeneland last fall, and though she is winless in four starts since, she has been facing tough company.

Race 7, Fleur De Lis: Sheer Drama (#7, 2-1) is the most likely winner and the lone “A” in the race, but she finished just a small margin ahead of some of these rivals in the La Troienne, and I don’t feel entirely comfortable singling her.

So I will hedge with a trio of “B” runners: Tiz Windy (#2, 8-1), Yahilwa (#4, 15-1), and Gold Medal Dancer (#9, 3-1).

Late-running Tiz Windy could benefit from a quick pace over a track she loves; Yahilwa is an overlay at her morning line and an in-form, consistent performer; and Gold Medal Dancer has developed into a top mare, though her ability to stay the 1 1/8-mile distance of the Fleur De Lis is somewhat in doubt.

Race 8, Stephen Foster: Commissioner (#1, 3-1) and Lea (#2, 7-5) are the “A” plays in the Foster, with Commissioner slightly preferred because Lea is unraced since a third in the March 28 Dubai World Cup.

Cat Burglar (#7, 8-1) has value appeal and is a “B” runner. Making his third start off a layoff, he looks to be rounding into form for trainer Bob Baffert, and his recent third in the Pimlico Special behind victorious Commissioner was a deceptively good race after a difficult, wide trip.

Race 9, Matt Winn: The speedy Fame and Power (#5, 6-5) is 2 for 3 this year, and is trained by Baffert. He also just beat some of these foes in the Sir Barton Stakes at Pimlico.

But with Fame and Power being a one-dimensional front-runner and therefore potentially vulnerable if pressured early, I will try a pair of “B” runners as value backups: Island Town (#2, 6-1) and Bold Conquest (#7, 5-2).

The Tickets: Plugging the “A” and “B” horses into Daily Racing Form’s Ticketmaker program with a budget of $45 results in an all “A” ticket played in $1.50 denominations; combinations of three “A” winners and one “B” winner for $1 each; and two “A” winners and two “B” winners at 50 cents apiece.