King: Three Kentucky Derby contenders who can rate

A little more than three weeks removed from the Kentucky Derby, shortly before the last major prep for the race, the Arkansas Derby, the list of contenders is long, as are the number of horses who have a front-running or pace-pressing style.

In doing a little bit of pre-Derby research, the similarity of running styles among the probable starters was the immediate thing that jumped out when looking at the contenders listed in Daily Racing Form’s Derby Watch.

American Pharoah: front-runner. Dortmund: front-runner. Firing Line: Front-runner. And to spare you the repetition, the list goes on.

That is not to say that they are all like American Pharoah, whose three victories have all come on the lead. Others, like Dortmund, have at times rated, such as when he won an allowance at Churchill Downs last fall after sitting fifth after a quarter-mile, 2 3/4 lengths off the pacesetter.

But since that time, Dortmund has become more aggressive early, being on the lead at either the quarter-mile or half-mile call in all three of his races as a 3-year-old.

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays

This abundance of speed, as well as the Derby’s history of typically unfolding with a fast pace, begs the question, which horses might capitalize from all this speed?

In examining the past performances, my shortlist of horses not overly keen early and capable of successfully winning from the second tier of runners came down to Mubtaahij, Frosted, International Star, Tencendur, Far Right, Danzig Moon, and War Story.

Among that group, only three such second-tier runners look like legitimate contenders – Mubtaahij, Frosted, and International Star – though the verdict is still out on Far Right, whose performance in the Arkansas Derby will go a long way as a reflection on his Kentucky Derby hopes.

What’s interesting about these three off-the-pace runners is that they all won anti-key Derby preps – races from which horses have typically struggled in the Derby over the last 10 or more years.

Still, the point of this column was to look at style, and these horses have it.

Having watched replays of all of Mubtaahij’s races in Dubai, where he typically raced two to three lengths off the pace, he seems like a quick-breaking horse who can be placed wherever his rider desires and simply wait for a cue before accelerating. He is also comfortable taking dirt in his face, racing inside, and splitting horses – all the kind of traits necessary for off-the-pace horses in the Kentucky Derby.

As for Frosted, he came from farther off the pace in the Wood Memorial than ever in his career – four lengths – sitting sixth of seven in the early going as the leaders walked up front, and yet he still managed to run down the midstretch leader. His task was made easier because the midstretch leader was Tencendur, a horse whose only victory in five starts came in a New York-bred maiden race at Aqueduct in January.

Last of the preferred off-the-pace types, we come to International Star, who swept the series of Derby preps at Fair Grounds, mostly over second-rate company but with a style that suggests he is well suited to the Kentucky Derby.

Typically running six lengths or so off the pace, he showed no aversion to coming up the rail or splitting horses – the kind of style that horses like Street Sense and Mine That Bird used for Derby success.

From a running-style standpoint, particularly when taking into account all the other speed in the field, International Star is the horse who best suits the makeup of the field.

Whether he is good enough is another question. I’m not sure myself, knowing that he didn’t beat a whole lot in his Fair Grounds races, with the possible exception of Stanford, the runner-up in the Louisiana Derby – and, by the way, another front-runner.

Still, the value should be there on International Star, with both speed-figure and class handicappers questioning him. Yet with the right style, if there is a pace meltdown in the race and the favorites regress, he has a fighting chance.

Three weeks out, I’m leaning toward supporting him – though with changing circumstances (workouts, defections, etc.), I could flip flop like a politician when it comes time to make my selection for the Derby a couple of days before the race.