King: Three good price plays on Belmont Derby undercard
Although the Grade 1, $1.25 million Belmont Derby and the Grade 1, $1 million Belmont Oaks are the richest and most prestigious races on Saturday’s stellar card at Belmont Park, three supporting stakes are more enticing: the Dwyer, Suburban Handicap, and Belmont Sprint Championship. In each race, I like horses who seem likely to be overlooked by bettors for one reason or another and range from 5-1 to 10-1 on the track’s morning line.
Here are my thoughts on those races, taking them in post-time order, starting with the Dwyer.
Dwyer, Race 7, 3:57 p.m. Eastern: Fresh off a victory in the Easy Goer Stakes, Economic Model was made the even-money favorite in the Dwyer, a price that puts him in the underlay category. Yes, he ran quickly in winning the Easy Goer, running a career-best 101 Beyer Speed Figure, but it came in a five-horse race in which the two favorites – third-place Rally Cry and last-place Cupid – ran far below their potential. So, I’m not sold that Economic Model is quite as good as that race makes him look in the past performances.
As a value-priced alternative, I am encouraged about the chances of 8-1 shot Fish Trappe Road, who after blowing away allowance competition at Churchill Downs on Derby Day returned to finish second in the Grade 2 Woody Stevens.
Although he didn’t run as quickly on the Beyer scale as Economic Model, Fish Trappe Road did well considering that he was a part of a demanding pace and was matched against a top-class group of sprinters going seven furlongs.
Fish Trappe Road now stretches out to a mile for the Dwyer, but it seems like something within his scope – around one turn, at least. His wins have come at seven furlongs, though he was second in the one-mile Sleepy Hollow Stakes for New York-breds at Belmont last fall.
Toss in a favorable draw on the outside, and he should get a nice pressing, stalking trip right off chronic fader Laoban.
Suburban, Race 9, 5:13: With race favorites Effinex and Noble Bird coming off disappointing performances in which they were unplaced, my preference is to go with an in-form price horse in 5-1 Shaman Ghost.
Last year’s Queen’s Plate winner, Shaman Ghost, has run well in both starts at age 4 while based in New York, running third in a fast allowance and then dominating the 1 1/2-mile Brooklyn Handicap, in which he easily beat an effective stayer in Turco Bravo.
If the Brooklyn were the only top performance from Shaman Ghost, I might be reluctant to back him on the cutback to 1 1/4 miles in the Suburban. But this is a horse with victories on Polytrack at Woodbine and on dirt at Keeneland and Gulfstream. And his Queen’s Plate triumph last year came at this 1 1/4-mile distance.
I’m further encouraged by his versatile running style. Shaman Ghost can be placed two to three lengths off the pace if the fractions are slow or rally successfully from as far back as 11 lengths off the leaders if fractions are quick.
Belmont Sprint Championship, Race 11, 6:23: Closing out the card is the Belmont Sprint Championship, where Private Zone is likely to be favored in his first start of 2016. And one can understand why, based on his status as a multiple Grade 1 winner with earnings of more than $2.9 million. But Private Zone hasn’t run since Nov. 28, when he turned in one of his worst performances when fifth in the Cigar Mile.
On principle, I can’t back a short-priced horse who hasn’t run for that period of time. There is simply too much risk for too little reward.
Instead, I’m intrigued by 10-1 outsider A. P. Indian, who is in sharp form but might be overlooked due to his having not run in graded stakes with any success.
But look a little closer at his two races this year, and it’s apparent that A. P. Indian is a pretty nice horse. He was elevated from second to first in the Decathlon Stakes at Monmouth after being impeded by eventual Smile Sprint winner Delta Bluesman, and last out at Parx, he romped by three lengths in the $100,000 Donald LeVine Memorial over Roxbury N Overton, who had won four straight at Parx leading into the race.
A. P. Indian has the tactical speed to get a good trip, and he is perfect in two starts at the seven-furlong distance of the Belmont Sprint Championship.