King: Thank You Marylou key to Prairie Meadows pick three
LOUISVILLE, Ky. – For many, Saturdays are dinner-and-movie nights, or something similar. Horseplayers are a different breed, though, and might find something else more attractive late this Saturday evening – the pick three at Prairie Meadows.
It is not your customary Prairie Meadows fare. It is the track’s big night, with three Grade 3 stakes: the Iowa Oaks, the Iowa Derby, and the Cornhusker Handicap. And no surprise here, those three races are tied together in a pick three.
Here’s a look at the sequence:
◗ Race 7, the Iowa Oaks, post 9:11 p.m. Central
Of the three stakes, this is the one in which I have the strongest opinion – that Thank You Marylou (No. 7) is a likely winner.
This is a filly who looks to rebound with a class drop out of the toughest 3-year-old filly race this year – The Kentucky Oaks, a race in which she ran fifth after being in contention early. And though well beaten by Untapable, losing by 12 1/2 lengths, she still ran a good race, finishing in front of more than half of the classy field.
Even with a sound defeat, she ran a competitive 86 Beyer Speed Figure – not far behind those with the best numbers. And she ran even faster in a race at Gulfstream this spring, when she won the Any Limit Stakes going seven furlongs with a 93 Beyer.
Beyond that, I like her preparation leading into the Iowa Oaks, having been given eight weeks away from racing while remaining active in the mornings with weekly drills since May 19. This should leave her fresh and ready for a top effort.
Is she a can’t-miss play in this race? No. But she looks to have about a 30 percent chance of winning the race by my estimate and is sitting at 7-2 on the line.
Using the ABC contender format with DRF ’s Ticketmaker program, she is as an ‘A’ play, and Sugar Shock (No. 5) and Ria Antonia (No. 4) are backup ‘C’ plays.
◗ Race 8, the Iowa Derby, post 9:43
The Iowa Derby is more contentious, and the plan is to go deeper. Two ‘A’ horses are on the ticket, Louisiana Derby winner Vicar’s in Trouble (No. 8) and Derby Trial winner Embellishing Bob (No. 1).
But with plenty of speed in the lineup and the two aforementioned colts being front-runners, off-the-pace threats Russellin (No. 2) and Six Spot (No. 3) are secondary ‘B’ runners who merit some degree of use if there is a pace meltdown.
Both are well drawn toward the inside, which should provide them with the opportunity to at least save ground into the first turn.
◗ Race 9, the Cornhusker Handicap, post 10:15
The Cornhusker is the most challenging of the sequence, a race in which Carve (No. 4) gets the slight nod after winning an allowance powerfully at Churchill on June 14. He also ran third in the Oaklawn Handicap this year, finishing just behind Will Take Charge and Revolutionary.
Millionaire Golden Ticket (No. 8) is the second selection and another ‘A,’ having kept the best company in the field and sporting an eight-length win over this track last year. But having seen him hang in some of his races, he is hard to trust.
Ground Transport (No. 6), having bombed in the Brooklyn going 1 1/2 miles when rank into the first turn, is worthy of being a ‘B’ play, based on his pre-Brooklyn form. And Eriugena (No. 1) and Bellarmine (No. 3) slip in as ‘C’ runners.
The Tickets
Plugging the horses into Ticketmaker as outlined in this column and in the accompanying chart, with a 50-cent minimum play and a $19 budget, generates a play of all A’s for $1.50 each, two A’s and a B for $1, an A with two Bs for 50 cents, and two A’s and a C for 50 cents. Collectively, these price out to $19.
For the tax-conscious player, the pick three at Prairie Meadows has a 23 percent takeout – right above average for the industry. Its pick four takeout is a much lower 15 percent but includes the last race, a wide-open claimer for Iowa-bred nonwinners of two that left me unenthused when handicapping it.
