King: Tencendur offers good value in Ohio Derby
Kentucky Derby horses can be a little bit like the fans watching from the stands. Some hit it big, others lose money but not their minds, and still others have an experience they would rather forget, like a Derby infielder who has enjoyed too many mint juleps.
Tencendur, the Wood Memorial runner-up, had the “rather forget about it” Derby experience, struggling home 35 lengths behind American Pharoah in 17th place. But in fairness to him, there are a lot of horses who go off their game on Derby Day. It is a race in which rear-half finishers end up losing by much more than what would be customary for a typical race.
Such lopsided losses are typically not representative of the ability of these horses, and over the years, some have returned to form when placed in a more forgiving race. For Tencendur, that bounce-back race might come Saturday in the $500,000 Ohio Derby at ThistleDown.
Matched against a field not anywhere close to the quality he faced in the Derby, Tencendur has a prime opportunity to outrun his 8-1 morning-line odds and perhaps score an upset. Off seven weeks since the Derby, he has been given ample recovery time, and with his “bounce” out of the way after a breakthrough run when beaten only two lengths by Frosted in the Wood Memorial, another top effort looks forthcoming.
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He looks like a 5-1 chance and likely will start above that price, even if he drops a bit from his morning line. Tencendur just doesn’t have the flash that immediately grabs a bettor’s attention – such as a Hall of Fame trainer, i.e. Bob Baffert with Whiskey Ticket, or “name” jockey, like Julien Leparoux on Divining Rod.
What he does have is the top overall Beyer Speed Figure in the race, a 100, and a jockey, Manny Franco, who was aboard for the colt’s lone victory.
Since the Derby, Tencendur has also recorded a series of quick works at Belmont Park, and it is encouraging that trainer George Weaver shows confidence in the colt by running him in this lucrative race instead of staying home in New York and running in a statebred first-level allowance.
Weaver, who takes the blinkers off Tencendur, hasn’t lost faith, and neither have I.
Obeah: Blue Violet in fine form
Saturday’s Grade 3 Obeah at Delaware Park, in contrast to so many stakes races for older mares on dirt this year, drew a deep field, making it one of the better wagering races of the weekend.
Contention runs deep, with at least four or five runners appearing to have strong chances of victory. And in that scenario, it is typically best to go with a price horse – which is the strategy here.
I like Blue Violet, a Delaware-based runner with past success over the track who is 6-1 on the line. She’s in top form, making the third start of her form cycle, and owns some of the better recent speed figures.
Her last race, a fourth in the Allaire duPont Distaff, is also a bit better than it looks at first glance. She was only beaten a couple of necks for the place, and the winner, Stopchargingmaria, is a multiple Grade 1 winner.
Blue Violet was also perhaps a little bit too close to a demanding early pace, which seemed to take a toll on her late. Plus, she cuts back in distance from 1 1/8 to 1 1/16 miles on Saturday.
With three deep closers drawn to her inside, Blue Violet is well drawn in post 4 to get a favorable stalking trip behind the speed, hopefully saving ground into the first turn.
Roxelana: Willow Hills at short price
In contrast to Tencendur and Blue Violet, Willow Hills doesn’t offer such a price in the $70,000 Roxelana at Churchill Downs. She’s 2-1 on the line, and if she dips below that, I would be reluctant to bet her.
Regardless, she looks like a winner. Perfect in three starts, she is favorably drawn outside of the other speed in the six-furlong race, and her chief contenders appear to have weaknesses.
Milam, at 3-1, hasn’t been running nearly as fast as she was earlier in her career, and 4-1 Donita’s Ruler seems a bounce candidate while going to Churchill from Parx, where she won the My Juliet Stakes last out with a 96 Beyer. Donita’s Ruler has historically regressed after running a Beyer in the 80s, much less one in the 90s.