King: Taking contrarian stance to pace flow in Saratoga stakes
My strategy for wagering on Saturday’s stakes at Saratoga is simple: Go against the grain by betting against horses widely deemed to hold a pace advantage. The reasoning? Predicting pace is tricky, influenced by the strategies of jockeys, and also by luck, such as how a prominent speed horse breaks from the gate.
If predicting pace flow is one of your strengths as a handicapper, more power to you. But I’m of the opinion that unexpected pace scenarios unfold regularly, and for me at least, I have enjoyed more handicapping success by letting pace take a backseat to class, speed figures, and form.
With that noted, here’s my take on the Travers and the three stakes that precede it Saturday at Saratoga.
Travers Stakes
The pace crowd is likely to view Bayern as the lone speed, and bet him down from his 2-1 morning line. Without question he certainly appears to be the speediest horse as one analyzes the past performances. But he’s also the favorite, and therefore the target for opposing riders, and somehow I get the impression that at the very least he will be kept honest up front. And if that scenario develops, he is not a sure thing.
My alternative value-based choice is Tonalist (#6), who ran a wide second in a slow-paced Jim Dandy after winning the Belmont and is a horse likely to move forward. As for his class, he has proven it, winning both the Peter Pan and Belmont Stakes this year.
Ballerina Stakes
With at least three regular front-runners in this lineup, many bettors will be looking to play against La Verdad, reasoning that she is a need-the-lead front-runner.
I’m not going to overthink it. Although she disappointed in running fifth in the Honorable Miss when beaten to the lead, one race does not make a trend. She may prove capable of pressing the pace successfully or she may simply find herself in front early. Maybe she is just faster than these.
What is undisputed is this: La Verdad (#6) is 9 for 12, and if she sticks to her 7-2 morning line, it will represent the highest price she has ever been in her life.
King’s Bishop Stakes
Pace-flow bettors are sure to be all over favorite Coup de Grace, a closer who would seem likely to get the hot pace to aid his stretch rally, at least on paper. Of course, these races are run on the track, not on paper.
I will go against the grain and take a speed horse: Wildcat Red (#2). Battle tested against many of the best 3-year-olds in the country this year, he cuts back in distance from routes to go seven-eighths of a mile in the King’s Bishop, a move that should aid his chances.
A multiple graded stakes winner, he leads the field in earnings with a bankroll of more than $850,000. And following a win in the ungraded Quality Road Stakes and then a third in the Haskell, Wildcat Red has regained his form after a dull showing when 18th in the Kentucky Derby.
Ballston Spa Stakes
Dayatthespa would appear to be the lone speed, particularly if longshot Night Song does not show any early lick. But riders on those opposing her know this as well, and are sure to have her in their sights from the start.
In contrast to Dayatthespa, who figures to get bet down from her morning line due to how the race looks on paper, Abaco (#3) should at least stick to her 4-1 morning line, if not drift up, due to her closing style. Such a price would make her an overlay.
This mare has raced in Grade 2 and Grade 1 company over her last three starts, and though she did not win any of those races, the only mares to finish in front of her over that stretch were Somali Lemonade, Stephanie’s Kitten, Discreet Marq, Riposte, and Hard Not to Like.
Those are some of the elite turf mares in training, and by finishing close to those rivals, Abaco proved her class. And class is the key factor when handicapping races on grass.