King: Sunny Ridge can hand Shagaf first loss in Gotham Stakes
Among the reasons young horses are primarily sold unraced at auction is that buyers can still imagine these horses eventually becoming a Kentucky Oaks or Kentucky Derby winner. Then, they eventually run and, well, for the overwhelming majority, the dreams suddenly become more realistic.
Bettors are more cynical than horse owners, but they, too, aren’t immune to Derby fever. Show them an unbeaten 3-year-old, and they start betting him like he is the next Nyquist or Mohaymen.
Naturally, few are. Most take the leap into tougher company and lose.
It is this “potential star” inefficiency in the betting market that makes the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct one of the most appealing stakes on Saturday – at least for those willing to go against morning-line favorite Shagaf, who is unbeaten in two starts.
With impeccable breeding, a perfect record, and successful connections, he seems likely to get pounded by bettors who see nothing but blue sky, thereby creating overlaid prices on others, including my selection, Sunny Ridge.
What’s to like about Sunny Ridge? Plenty. He is the leading money earner, having made more than $524,000; he is the lone stakes winner in the race; he is the only horse with a Grade 1 placing; and he owns both the top last-race Beyer Speed Figure, an 87, and the top overall Beyer in the race, a 92, earned in running a close second to a legitimate Derby contender in Exaggerator in last fall’s Delta Jackpot.
He also posted his 87 Beyer in the Grade 3 Withers, going 1 1/16 miles on Aqueduct’s inner track – the same conditions over which the Gotham is run.
Add that all up, and this looks like a horse who should be 2-1, not the 7-2 price he is on the morning line.
As for Shagaf, he could win. But is he a good bet at 3-1 or lower after a workmanlike victory in a first-level allowance at Gulfstream, and while not having yet raced in a stakes race or around two turns? Nope.
I’d much rather bet a battle-tested horse such as Sunny Ridge, a New Jersey-bred former maiden claimer and a Holy Bull gelding to boot. He’s the kind of blue-collar racehorse I love, one who has never been favored in his life and who repeatedly outruns his odds.
Go with Valid, Da Big Hoss
I will be sticking with overachievers with my two other stakes plays Saturday, both of which come at Gulfstream.
First up is Valid in the Gulfstream Park Handicap, going his preferred distance of a mile on the main track. Third in this race last year behind Honor Code and Private Zone, he seemingly faces a far easier group this year, with Stanford and Itsaknockout being his principal adversaries.
Although they are useful horses, neither has won a stakes race against anything outside of restricted 3-year-old company in 2015.
Valid, on the other hand, has earned more than $960,000 – making the bulk of that past his 3-year-old year, when stakes purses aren’t nearly as rich as they are for horses entering and exiting the Derby trail.
I would expect Valid to start as a tepid favorite in the Gulfstream Park Handicap but still a tick or two higher on the board than he should be due to his not having the high-profile connections of other horses in the race.
As for my other stakes play at Gulfstream, it comes in the Grade 2 Mac Diarmida on former claimer Da Big Hoss, who has developed into one of the better distance grass horses in the country.
A two-time graded winner who was beaten just 6 1/2 lengths when sixth in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf last fall, he holds a potential fitness edge over two of his key rivals, Twilight Eclipse and Mr Maybe, who are unraced since the fall.
Though Da Big Hoss was a 4 3/4-length winner of his last start in the Grade 3 John B. Connally Turf Cup, my suspicion is that bettors will be unimpressed by that victory since it came at Sam Houston and he was able to slip up the inside on the second turn in a favorable trip.
I think he’s the real deal, Sam Houston or not, good trip or not. And as sharp as his form is, he could conceivably be the third choice in the wagering at around 7-2 or 4-1, which would make him an overlay.