King: Summer Moon can fire for Brown in U.S. debut

The Hal’s Hope may be the race Saturday at Gulfstream that has the most star power – drawing last year’s Grade 1 Donn winner, Lea – but the two other stakes there Saturday, both deep contests on turf, are the races that have this horseplayer eager to wager.

Immediately after the Hal’s Hope is the Grade 3 Marshua’s River (race 8) at 1 1/16 miles on grass – a race in which I suspect Parranda will be favored.

Although I respect the consistency of Parranda, I don’t believe she is as classy as she appears on paper. Over the summer and fall last year, she raced against what I felt was a mediocre cast of Grade 1 and Grade 2 turf mares in California.

So, I will take a shot and try to beat her with the French invader Summer Moon. First or second in 5 of 7 starts overseas, she is an honest mare who has worked smartly on grass leading up to her first start in America.

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Her trainer, Chad Brown, an Eclipse Award finalist, also excels with foreign horses making their first start for him, even when they are racing in tough stakes right off the bat. According to Daily Racing Form ’s Formulator database, Brown has a record of 16-3-4-1 with foreign invaders in graded stakes over the past five years.

The three winners shared traits in common with Summer Moon – they all are fillies who came from France. So, Summer Moon fits the winning profile.

Off since September, she looks poised to fire fresh in the Marshua’s River with skilled grass rider Julien Leparoux aboard.

One of the others likely to command support is Strike Charmer, the winner of the 14-horse Cardinal Handicap at Churchill in late November, but she seems to have an affinity for the Churchill course, where her three victories have come. She’s yet to race at Gulfstream and is shipping in from Fair Grounds, a potential disadvantage against her Florida-based counterparts.

Mshawish in Fort Lauderdale

A couple of races later in the 10th, male turfers go to post in a deep renewal of the Grade 2 Fort Lauderdale – a race Mshawish looks poised to win. A Group 2 winner in Dubai, he has seen steady improvement since arriving in the states, capped by a convincing two-length victory over the Gulfstream course Dec. 13 in the ungraded El Prado Stakes.

Admittedly, he had a fine trip, saving ground on the second turn before angling out and finding clear sailing on the outside in the stretch, but his turn of foot was striking regardless. And it is important to remember that sometimes horses who get good, off-the-pace trips are those who make their own luck by being responsive to their riders and accelerating quickly when holes open.

Drawn in post 3, with one horse having much more speed than he has, he is better positioned to get a more favorable trip than some of his rivals drawn toward the outside, such as Za Approval and Mutin.

Mshawish’s strengths are fairly obvious, however – likely resulting in him going off well backed at the betting windows. So, horseplayers may wish to focus on him more in multirace gimmicks.

As for the veteran Za Approval, he’s an old class horse who was good enough to run second to Wise Dan in the 2013 Breeders’ Cup Mile. But he went just 1 for 6 last year, seemingly losing a step, though his performances over the second half of the year were an improvement over his spring and summer efforts.

Mutin is a tricky read. He overcame traffic problems to win his U.S. debut in an allowance Nov. 9 at Aqueduct, but somewhat of a concern was how he ran. He was too eager at stages in the race and carried his head high at times when placed on hold by his rider.

Mshawish seems a more professional runner than Mutin.

Majestic Harbor in San Pasqual

Despite the presence of the Grade 1 winner Hoppertunity in the San Pasqual at Santa Anita, the race drew a good-sized field, particularly for a dirt race.

There, my value-based choice is the class-dropping Majestic Harbor – an erratic runner who can be dangerous when he turns his best. A two-time stakes winner on the Santa Anita main track, he should appreciate facing softer competition after racing in three straight Grade 1 races, including the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Getting an adequate price is a necessity with Majestic Harbor given his inconsistency. Provided the field is not reduced by scratches, odds of 5-1 or more are needed for him to be worth a wager.