King: Suddenbreakingnews not worth taking shot against

In Saturday’s Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn, I suspect many will be looking for wagering alternatives to beat Suddenbreakingnews, the upset winner of last month’s Southwest Stakes who was installed as the 3-1 morning-line favorite. I can understand the reasoning given that his five prior starts at Remington Park suggested he would fit better long term in a race like the Oklahoma Derby than the big one in Kentucky.

Then the Southwest happened, in which he blew by 11 horses in the stretch to win by 2 3/4 lengths – though many are now attributing his success to troubled trips from key rivals and a fast pace that flattered his late-running style.

Those are valid observations. But I think something else may have been responsible, too – that being a change in riding tactics by regular jockey Luis Quinonez.

Held up early, being ridden much like a turf horse, he advanced only minimally on the second turn, when other closers were kicking into gear, and was only turned loose for a quarter-mile run. And then the magic happened, with Suddenbreakingnews blowing by rivals on the outside and suddenly vaulting into the Kentucky Derby discussion.

Having seen the different response from him under ultra-patient handling, expect Quinonez to opt for such tactics again, especially since his mount lands on the far outside in post 14.

Though Suddenbreakingnews will get his share of backers, I’m not sold that he will start as the favorite. Cupid, trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, is sure to attract a ton of mutuel support off a flashy pedigree and Baffert’s success over the years with shippers to Oaklawn. Whitmore, a wide second in the Southwest, should be fancied by trip handicappers.

I respect those two but am not convinced of their superiority to Suddenbreakingnews. Cupid is stepping way up in class from a maiden victory, and Whitmore seems at risk of another wide trip, being seemingly the type who has to make a longer closing run than Suddenbreakingnews.

Naturally, the race is not down to simply these three horses. Cases could be made for at least half of the 14 entrants in the field.

But with Suddenbreakingnews having run so well over this track with a style change in the Southwest, and with sharp works leading into this race, he’s the one for me.

Primed to upset Upstart

Earlier on the Saturday card at Oaklawn, I’ll try to beat the favored Upstart in the Razorback Handicap with 6-1 Shotgun Kowboy.

Although not as classy or as fast as Upstart when they are both at their best, Shotgun Kowboy has a key advantage: a recent start. He raced Feb. 20 in a swiftly run Duncan Kenner Stakes at Fair Grounds, finishing a wide fifth going six furlongs over a track that many felt was inside favoring.

I believe more than anything that Shotgun Kowboy simply needed that race, not having started since finishing seventh in the Clark Handicap at Churchill on Nov. 27. And with that start behind him, I expect much more speed and a far better effort in the 1 1/16-mile Razorback.

He routed effectively last fall after one sprint setup, winning the Oklahoma Derby and later a stakes for Oklahoma-breds, running Beyer Speed Figures in the mid-90s.

Those figures aren’t on par with the best Upstart has run, but they match up well with others in the Razorback, and I’m not anticipating Upstart’s best when he hasn’t raced since running a well-beaten fifth in the Pennsylvania Derby on Sept. 19.

Whiskey Bravo at the distance

Although Saturday’s Colonel Power at Fair Grounds carries a purse of only $50,000, there is no shortage of depth in the field, with 13 horses entered.

My choice is Whiskey Bravo, a winner of three straight who has shown an affinity for sprinting the Colonel Power’s distance 5 1/2 furlongs on the Fair Grounds grass. He is also racing the first time for high-percentage trainer Brad Cox after being claimed for $40,000 at Fair Grounds on Feb. 13.

He also figures to get his desired trip, stalking the pace on the outside. It is with such trips, in which he has raced three wide or so, that he has rallied from fourth to three-peat at the current meet.

A key note: Rain is expected Thursday through Saturday in New Orleans, and if the Colonel Power comes off the grass, he would not be an unappealing play on dirt, a surface on which he is 1 for 14.