King: Stays in Vegas can adapt in Starlet

With 2-year-olds being less experienced and less battle-tested than older horses, races for these young horses understandably are filled with more unknown variables.

Saturday’s Starlet, at 1 1/16 miles on the Los Alamitos main track, is a prime example. A quick glance at the nine entrants reveals the following: Seven horses are stretching out from sprints, with the two exceptions, Stays in Vegas and Sutton’s Smile, exiting mile turf races; six fillies have not run over the Los Alamitos surface; and only a single entrant, Pretty N Cool, has proven herself to be a graded-quality dirt horse to this point.

So what’s a horseplayer to do? Back the filly who seems most likely to adapt successfully to the new circumstances – and by my analysis, that horse is Stays in Vegas.

Although her two most recent wins have come in stakes races on turf – first in the Surfer Girl at Santa Anita on Oct. 10, then later in the Pike Place Dancer at Golden Gate – I believe she is likely as good on dirt as on grass.

She began her career with two dirt stakes wins at Pleasanton and Santa Rosa, before being humbled when fifth in the Del Mar Debutante behind Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner Songbird.

That failure likely will cause some horseplayers to question her dirt class going into the Starlet, at least to some degree, but I’m willing to forgive her for that loss. It was her only defeat in five starts and came over an unfamiliar surface while chasing unquestionably the best 2-year-old filly in the country.

Perhaps she didn’t care for the Del Mar track and was simply at a low point in her form cycle. Bear in mind that prior to the race Aug. 29, she had worked a ho-hum five furlongs at Del Mar in 1:01.60.

Compare that to her work at Los Alamitos this Monday, when she zipped a half-mile in 46 seconds. For a filly who is not a speedball but rather a stalking router, such a quick work is telling.

Gulfstream: Harlan’s Holiday Stakes

Of the four stakes Saturday at Gulfstream, the most intriguing race to this handicapper is the Harlan’s Holiday, in large part because Madefromlucky, the 3-1 second choice on the morning line, figures to be overbet. This likely will cause my selection, Valid, to stick to his 5-2 morning line, if not drift higher.

Since moving into the stable of trainer Marcus Vitali in fall 2013, this horse has won 9 of 25 starts and more than $725,000. And he’s earned that money the hard way, largely racing in older-horse stakes with modest purses, ranging in value usually from $75,000 to $150,000.

He wasn’t earning his money in restricted, purse-inflated 3-year-old company, as did Madefromlucky, whose highlight win came this year in a weak renewal of the $750,000 West Virginia Derby.

When Valid raced for large purses like that, he was doing so against some of the best horses around. Last out, Oct. 30, he ran fifth behind Liam’s Map, Lea, Red Vine, and Wicked Strong in the $1 million Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile.

Back in Florida, his base for all but the summer months, look for Valid to be tough to beat on a Gulfstream Park main track over which he is 5 for 10.

Aqueduct: Bay Ridge Stakes

Saturday’s Bay Ridge at Aqueduct offers an opportunity to go for a value horse due to potential vulnerability in the two morning-line favorites, Temper Mint Patty and Flipcup. Temper Mint Patty comes off one of the worst races of her career, a 16-length dusting in the Grade 3 Comely, and Flipcup shifts off her preferred surface on Polytrack to run on dirt. They could win, but at 2-1 and 5-2, respectively, there is too much risk for too little reward.

I’m going with Sheriffa. She’s in sharp form, is 2 for 3 on the Aqueduct inner track, and also is a two-time stakes winner.

What she hasn’t done is run 1 1/16 miles, the distance of the Bay Ridge, though she had no trouble with a mile and 70 yards in recording her two inner-track triumphs last winter.

Though she realistically will drop from her 6-1 morning line, I doubt she will dip below 4-1, barring any significant scratches. There is enough flash to the two favorites to keep money pouring in on them.