Many horseplayers understandably change their focus when dealing with an off track, taking into consideration past efforts over such surfaces, along with the horses’ wet-track pedigrees. I am no different, though I do like to fine tune my off-track analysis, looking at a horse’s career past performances and trying to find a race closely resembling the type of wet track he is catching on race day. So, in preparation for handicapping Saturday’s card at Churchill Downs, where it is forecasted to rain heavily, I went through my usual off-track strategy, using the filter in DRF’s Formulator to isolate off-track efforts on dirt surfaces. This provided an easy snapshot of those with wet-track form and brought to attention races that in the cases of some veteran horses were no longer visible in the past performances that appear in print. In anticipation of a sloppy track Saturday, I looked for horses with efforts over such going, while considering races on muddy tracks to a lesser degree. Races contested over “good” tracks, which count under the wet-track record for a horse in the past performances but are typically drying-out and sometimes harrowed racetracks, did not get much of my attention. I came to two conclusions with this information: Alsvid could be vulnerable as one of the favorites in the featured Aristides if it is run on a sloppy track, and Enduring Honor’s chances in race 8 look fantastic under a wet-track scenario. This Formulator data could prove key, as Alsvid, to look at his wet-track record, wouldn’t seem like a horse to downgrade on an off track. He has a win and a third in four races on wet surfaces, but as noted above, a wet-track record includes starts on “good” tracks – the conditions under which he recorded his win and his third. His record on muddy and sloppy tracks wasn’t nearly as good: a fifth in the Iowa Sprint in the mud at Prairie Meadows in June 2014 and a seventh over a sloppy track in last fall’s Phoenix at Keeneland. So, though I really liked Alsvid’s second in the Twin Spires Turf Sprint on grass, a surface that is not his specialty, regression could be in the cards for him Saturday. On the flip side, the potential for an off track left me encouraged about the prospects of Enduring Honor in the eighth race on the card. Coming off a career-best race last month on a fast track at Keeneland, where he ran third and earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 88, he’s likely to maintain that form even with the move to Churchill and a strong likelihood of catching a sloppy track. He already caught the slop once before at Churchill in May 2015 and ran third, beaten only 1 1/4 lengths despite running into some traffic problems on the turn. At the time, the 77 Beyer that Enduring Honor posted for that third-place finish was his highest speed figure. I wish he offered more of a price than his 5-2 morning line, but with other horses in the field having run well over sloppy tracks, most notably What’s Your Thesis and Tale of Verve, hopefully others will attract attention. It is hard to imagine Tale of Verve not getting bet down from his 6-1 morning line, considering that he was second to Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in a sloppy Preakness last year. It stands to reason that a wet track could move him up, as it did in the Preakness. Still, I am not one to let wet-track form entirely trump other handicapping factors. In the case of Tale of Verve, I am concerned about his poor post-Preakness form and that he has not run since going unplaced in an allowance at Churchill last Nov. 12. In addition to playing Enduring Honor to win at 2-1 or higher, here are some pick three tickets I plan to play. With the sixth race being scheduled for turf, these are based on that race being moved to a sloppy main track in light of inclement weather. $6 pick three: Nileator (1) with Annathela (8) with Enduring Honor (1) $3 pick three: Nileator (1) with Daring Prospect (4), Spicy Temper (6) with Enduring Honor (1) $3 pick three: Long Ago (7), Dunk a Din (9) with Annathela (8) with Enduring Honor (1) $1 pick three: Long Ago (7), Dunk a Din (9) with Daring Prospect (4), Spicy Temper (6) with Enduring Honor (1). The total cost is $22.