King: Speed doesn't rule one-mile races at Fair Grounds

Let’s say you’re a speed bettor – a handicapper who likes to play front-runners – and you’re analyzing the card at Fair Grounds. There are a few routes on the day, and you’re starting to zero in on your plays.

You examine the running styles of the competitors, take note of rider tendencies that might affect which horses are sent and which are rated, and, last but not least, you take note of the distances of the given routes because Fair Grounds has its one-mile races begin and end at the sixteenth pole, thereby creating a shorter stretch.

And you are wise to do all of those things, particularly the latter, though likely not for the reason you think.

That’s because speed underperforms in one-mile races at Fair Grounds relative to those going longer distances, traveling the daunting, full stretch at Fair Grounds that covers roughly a quarter-mile.

In analyzing the results of one-mile races there and those routes ranging from a mile and 70 yards to 1 1/8 miles, horses who raced on the lead or within a head of the leader a quarter-mile into those longer races were much more likely to win; 23 of 67 such front-runners won, or more than 34 percent. And those who raced a mile? There, only 13 of 63 prevailed, or just shy of 21 percent.

You’re probably thinking, ‘Those numbers can’t be right, can they?’ But they are.

Turning it around from the perspective of closers, more than 44 percent of one-mile races were won by horses who raced five lengths or more off the early pace after a quarter-mile. And the same sample group in longer routes, where they have more distance and stretch to catch up? Only 19 percent of such horses coming from five lengths or more off the pace were successful.

Of course, the obvious question is why?

Naturally, some of the results may be the result of chance, but given the relatively large sample size on both ends, that doesn’t explain a difference of 10 front-running winners between the two sets.

Speculating, I’d attribute the results partly to the fact that one-mile races draw a different composition of runners. Because a mile is the shorter route run at Fair Grounds, it draws more stretch-out sprinters and stamina-challenged front-runners, with trainers reasoning that a mile is their horse’s best opportunity to last and putting such types in there.

The problem is that if there is an extra speed horse or two in these races as a result, it changes the pace picture, and a slow, friendly pace can be hard to find.

Secondly, one could theorize that jockeys ride these one-mile races differently, believing speed is advantageous and sending their mounts more as a result. This also could alter the race shape.

Granted, over time, this scenario could change as more and more off-the-pace horses win these one-mile races, altering perceptions, but that may take some time.

Long story made short, what I’m saying is that distance is overrated, but pace pressure is not – which is why so often we see front-runners prove dangerous in 1 1/8-mile races most everywhere – where plodders show up in abundance and speed horses typically do not, leaving one in a position to go slowly and capitalize.

In the scheme of things, running an extra 70 yards or even a sixteenth of a mile is not that tough on a front-running horse if that horse is racing uncontested on the lead or running a few fifths slower early.

My advice, for what it’s worth: Speed handicappers, keep doing what you do. Early speed is a tremendous advantage. Sometimes it’s just found in unexpected places.