King: Some early Kentucky Derby prospects for 2016

When Nyquist won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last Saturday at Keeneland, overcoming a troubled start, a wide trip, and a style change that saw him farther off the pace than usual, my first thought was, “How could he possibly have won with that trip?”

Then I looked at the clock and understood. He raced 1 1/16 miles in 1:43.79, more than a second slower than Songbird’s winning time of 1:42.73 in the Juvenile Fillies.

It wasn’t long after that that some handicappers took to Twitter to denounce the race and declare this year’s group of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runners a substandard lot. Later, I saw a post or two saying that perhaps 2016 could be the year when a horse unraced as a 2-year-old wins the Kentucky Derby – as Apollo last did way back in 1882.

I think such criticism is a little harsh, at least as it relates to Nyquist – who had every right to lose the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with his trip but didn’t. But as for those who ran behind him, I’m a little less forgiving.

(That said, I do have pedigree doubts about Nyquist staying the 1 1/4 miles of the Kentucky Derby, being by Uncle Mo and out of a Forestry mare.)

So, if you fall into the camp of those looking outside the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile for potential Kentucky Derby future-book bets or pickups for fantasy-stable leagues, here’s a shortlist of seven non-Juvenile participants who could become Derby players next year.

Songbird (Last 3 Beyers: 99-90-85)

Head and shoulders above the opposition in the 2-year-old filly division, you would have to think that her connections will at least entertain the possibility of running her in the Derby next year, particularly if she kicks off 2016 by whipping her female rivals.

If she remains as dominant as she has been and sound, knock wood, it would seem that the Derby would be the far more appealing prize than the Kentucky Oaks.

Airoforce (Last 3 Beyers: 86-80-78)

The runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, he is untested on dirt, having made all three of his starts on grass. But it might be premature to think he is strictly a grass horse. He debuted at Kentucky Downs on turf in a lucrative maiden race, and after he won that race Sept. 5, he was logically kept on turf and proceeded to win the Bourbon Stakes before just missing in the Juvenile Turf.

His bloodlines would suggest that he may handle a transition to dirt, being by Colonel John and out of a Cuvee mare. And trainer Mark Casse said last week that he likely will give him a try on dirt sometime this winter.

Mohaymen (Last 2 Beyers: 89-87)

Unbeaten in two starts, he comes off a win Wednesday in the Nashua at Aqueduct – a race in which he relaxed in sixth before powering past the opposition and winning by 1 3/4 lengths.

Though I’ve never laid eyes on him in person, I have to think he’s a striking physical specimen, judging by his $2.2 million yearling price – enormous even for a son of Tapit.

More Spirit (Last 2 Beyers: 92-83)

Of those babies who have run for trainer Bob Baffert, this one looks like his best Derby prospect. Following a second the first time out at Santa Anita in September, he came back to romp in a one-mile maiden race there Oct. 23.

Matt King Coal (Last 3 Beyers: 96-96-69)

Since a third-place finish in his debut when routing on grass at Saratoga, he has run two quick races on dirt. He missed by a nose in a fast race in the slop Oct. 3 at Belmont and then came back to win a maiden race by 5 3/4 lengths there Oct. 29 on a fast track, defeating Portfolio Manager, the Champagne Stakes third-place finisher.

Gift Box ( Last 2 Beyers: 93-66)

Wondering who edged Matt King Coal in that Oct. 3 maiden race at Belmont? It was the stalker Gift Box, who has continued to train forwardly since that race for trainer Chad Brown.

Gun Runner (Last 2 Beyers: 84-72)

He is perfect in two starts, winning a maiden race at Churchill in September going a mile and then repeating in an Oct. 17 allowance race at Keeneland at 1 1/16 miles. He seems a logical candidate for the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes on Nov. 28 at Churchill for trainer Steve Asmussen.