King: Sizing up Sam Houston's all-stakes, low-takeout pick four
In today’s era of tracks stacking their stakes to create big Saturdays, horseplayers have almost come to expect all-stakes pick fours on at least a biweekly basis. What they haven’t come to expect is a 12 percent takeout on such a wager, well below the standard range of 20 percent to 25 percent.
So, it is refreshing to see Sam Houston serving up an all-stakes pick four with just a 12 percent rake Saturday evening – a low rate that extends to all of its multirace gimmicks throughout the meet.
Considering this a half-off pick four sale, it is time to do some Sam Houston shopping. Below are my handicapping views on the sequence and a recommended ticket using DRF’s TicketMaker, a valuable resource for any bettor wanting to emphasize his wagering opinions to their fullest extent.
Race 6, Sam Houston Sprint Cup
Schivarelli (3), 7-2 on the morning line, ran sneaky well to be fourth in the $100,000 Dave’s Friend at Laurel last out, just a length behind third-place finisher Great Stuff, who returned to win the Grade 3 Toboggan at Aqueduct with a 102 Beyer Speed Figure. If he can run that well against this lesser cast, he should be highly effective. This horse has back class and seven victories from 27 lifetime starts. He rates as a high-percentage play, an “A” horse in TicketMaker.
I’ll back him up with a couple of “B” horses in Counterforce (1) and Wings Locked Up (2) since Schivarelli is unproven over the Houston strip and returning from a short layoff.
Race 7, The Jersey Lilly Turf
Proud Reunion (2), invading from Fair Grounds, seems the class of this contest, is well drawn, and is likely to get a favorable stalking trip on the inside. She also comes off an encouraging runner-up finish behind Five Hearts, who subsequently placed in a stakes. She is an “A.”
Worthy of lesser use as “B” runners are Witt’s Town (1), Special Rockstar (3), and Stormquility (7) – stakes winners in Texas who have earned speed figures that are competitive with Proud Reunion’s top numbers.
Race 8, Maxxam Gold Cup
Coming less than week after the $500,000 Razorback at Oaklawn, this race came up light on numbers and quality, giving Blueridge Traveler (2) an excellent chance to pick up his first stakes victory. I suspect some bettors will single him, but I cannot, fearing the possibility of regression on merely two weeks’ rest and a ship from Oaklawn after winning an allowance there Feb. 10. He is an “A,” but I will also use Social Misfit (1) and Net Gain (4), who are in good form and battle tested in stakes.
Race 9, Houston Turf
My lone “A” horse, Bonjour Baby (6), could be disadvantaged by not having raced since Oct. 21, but the price is right at 6-1 on the morning line. A grass specialist, he was entered in the Jan. 27 Richard King Stakes but was scratched from that off-the-turf race contested in the slop. He doesn’t always fire, but he has gone 7 for 14 on turf, and his best seems superior to that of his rivals.
I’ll sprinkle three “B” horses into the mix: Mav Master (2), Moojab Jr. (9), and Can’t Be Wrong (10).
The Tickets
Plugging the horses above into TicketMaker with a budget of $30, an all- “A” ticket is emphasized three times for $1.50, combinations of three “A” horses and a “B” get played for $1, and tickets of two “A” horses with two “B” runners are backed at the 50-cent minimum.
