King: Single second-time starter in last leg of pick three

My colleague Marty McGee has a name for a first-time starter whom everyone bets: an international good thing. He does not claim to have originated this quip, but it is humorous just the same, reflecting that everyone from Britain to Singapore seems to know about the horse.

I have never been one for backing international good things since they offer short payoffs when they win and because many talented horses can be beaten by inexperience the first time out. Case in point: Triple Crown winner American Pharoah ran fifth at 7-5 when he debuted at Del Mar in the summer of 2014.

I would much rather play a second-timer whose virtues are somewhat disguised by a poor first-out finish but who flashed at least some ability – preferably speed. These types are likely to improve second out and can come through at respectable prices.

One horse who fits this profile goes in the fifth race at Churchill Downs on Saturday: Northern Michigan, 5-1 on the morning line.

Her debut running line on April 30 does not do her justice. It shows her breaking last of seven, advancing to fifth a half-mile into the six-furlong race, 2 1/2 lengths off the leaders, and then fading to finish in that same position, 8 1/4 lengths behind the winner. The race earned her a modest 60 Beyer Speed Figure.

Her race replay reflects a far stronger performance. She spotted the field at least three lengths at the break from the inside post, quickly advanced to run up on the heels of rivals under her own power in the slop, angled out to make a bold, wide bid on the turn, and then tired.

Beyond the poor start, the key element to her race was the speed she displayed, which in her case was a bit hidden by a poor post and traffic. That was the most important trait to try to isolate in a potential second-out horse to bet.

Northern Michigan has since worked a couple times at Keeneland, and though neither was from the gate, I would expect she schooled in the gate in the weeks since her unveiling by trainer Ben Colebrook. And she should further benefit from getting off the rail, a position from which many inexperienced horses break poorly. She breaks from post 6 of eight Saturday.

Adding to her appeal is that Northern Michigan showed potential prior to that debut, drawing praise by Keeneland clockers for a five-furlong gate move in 59 seconds on April 13, which contributed to her being well played first out at odds of 6-1. She was not an “international good thing,” but she was the third betting choice behind a prohibitive favorite, High Heeled Girl, who won and subsequently repeated in an allowance.

How to best bet her and others like her down the road? My preference: Play Northern Michigan (and other troubled-trip types who fit this profile) in multirace wagers, focusing on her in the last leg of the wager. The rationale is to catch a little more value than waiting to play her in the win pool.

Here’s the reason: She will get bet down from her 5-1 morning-line price by trip handicappers, and the public sees that action. I suspect others will be giving her a closer examination, reevaluating her debut, and perhaps jumping on the betting bandwagon.

That is not to say that Northern Michigan won’t take action in the multirace wagers, but there at least follow-the-money bettors won’t be joining the party.

With that in mind, my wagering strategy for playing Northern Michigan is to focus on the pick three that begins on race 3 and concludes with her race, the fifth.

The classy Meshell (6) seems a likely winner of the third, with Donita’s Ruler (3) and Mayla (4) backup horses also worthy of being played to lesser degrees on smaller tickets.

The fourth race, a $5,000 claimer, seems fairly safely played with three horses: Vindicated (3), Long to Win (8), and National Defense (2). I will use them all equally while hoping that my selection, Vindicated, who offers the best price of the three on the morning line, can win it.

Last up is the fifth, where Northern Michigan (6) is a single, not because she is a slam dunk, but rather since these pick three tickets are in lieu of a win bet on her.

So, the third-race plays are a $6 pick three of 6 with 2, 3, 8 with 6 and a $2 backup ticket of 3, 4 with 2, 3, 8 with 6. The collective cost is $30.